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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7535)1/24/2007 4:32:54 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
And Junk Bond Credit Spreads just get smaller and smaller. There is a dearth of concern regarding credit default and downgrade risk among too many yield hungry investors.

--------------------------

Crossover index hits low, BA default swaps fall
Wednesday, January 24, 2007 10:11:09 AM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters News
By Kristina Cooke

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The "junk" bond-tracking iTraxx Crossover index hit record levels on Wednesday, while British Airways <BAY.L> default swaps fell after its largest union called off the first day of a planned strike.

The iTraxx Crossover index, a barometer for risk sentiment, tightened 4.5 basis points to a 194 basis point mid-price, traders said, a record low level for the Series 6 contract and significantly below the psychologically key 200 basis point mark.

"I would be very cautious to draw a floor for any index. We are in a very expensive credit market, and it could get even more expensive yet," said Georg Grodzki, a credit strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada.

"Right now there does not appear to be sufficient supply of credit risk for the demand out there, so we're going tighter. And equities are doing too well for there to be any blow-out in credit spreads," he said.

European shares hit fresh six-year peaks on Wednesday, boosted by higher mining and energy stocks, takeover hopes in the utility and truck sectors and a firmer opening on Wall Street. The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of leading European shares was 0.8 percent higher at 1,525.23 points by 1530 GMT.

The iTraxx Crossover index has tightened over 10 percent since Jan. 5, when it hit a wide level of 223 basis points, and nearly a third since Sept. 22, when it hit a wide level for the current contract of 292 basis points shortly after being launched.

"What could make it turn is a combination of a significant rise in supply or a sequence of major adverse credit events, and that doesn't look very likely in the next few weeks," Royal Bank of Canada's Grodzki said.

The wider market was quiet, traders said, with few individual credits vying for the market's attention.

"It seems strange that it is so quiet. At this time of year, you'd expect it to be busier," one trader said. "I think the reason could be that interest rate uncertainty may be keeping people out of the market at the moment."


BRITISH AIRWAYS

The cost of insuring the debt of British Airways fell after the airline said its largest union had called off the first day of a three-day walkout planned for next week.

"British Airways has been advised by the Transport and General Workers' Union (TGWU) that it has called off the first 24 hours of a planned 72-hour stoppage by cabin crew, which was due to begin on Monday," the airline said.

Five-year credit default swaps on BA tightened 4 basis points to a 76.5 basis points mid-price, another trader said.

In the cash bond market, the FTSE Euro Corporate Bond Index <EUCRAVSPG=> showed investment-grade corporate bonds in euros yielding an average 47.0 basis points more than similarly dated government bonds at 1527 GMT, unchanged on the day.





To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7535)1/24/2007 4:41:38 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Jon, Thank you for posting the Base and Peak Electricity prices today. I see about doing a bit of investigating as to how representative these two power contracts are to other geographic and marketplace prices.

John



To: Jon Koplik who wrote (7535)2/13/2007 12:43:33 AM
From: Jon Koplik  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Those plunging electricity prices are in England (!) They have been plunging SO quickly lately, that I finally did some serious "digging" to determine the real story ...

Background (text of message I am replying to) :

**************************************************************

Just checked those electricity prices again. Amazing collapse.

(But, everyone knows : "there's just so much strength now" ... both with the U.S. economy, and pricing pressures ...")

----------------------------------------------------------

futuresource.com

Click on the links just to the left side of the words :

Electricity Base Load

or

Electricity Peak Load

------------------------------------------------------------

These electricity prices are down so huge, that I would feel better if I knew with absolute certainty that they are indeed U.S. electricity prices.

(Details on these futures contracts are kind of difficult to find, even using the Internet ...)

Jon.

*************************************************************

Today (actually yesterday) (2/12/07) ... those two futures contracts made new lows again, and were each down between 5% and 10% in a single day.

From this website :

futuresource.com

and this website :

theice.com

(and clicking on : "ICE UK Base Electricity Futures" )

I learned that I have been watching U.K. electricity futures.

--------------------------------------------------------------

All of my comments along the lines of :

"Oh my gosh -- How can our central bankers say : "there's just so much strength now" ... both with the economy, and "pricing pressures ..."

merely flip from the incorrect central bankers in the U.S. to the incorrect central bankers in the U.K.

Jon.