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To: skinowski who wrote (140493)	1/24/2007 4:02:42 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Respond to of 209892

I think we test 1460 on the ES by Friday... JMO

To: skinowski who wrote (140493)	1/24/2007 5:12:33 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Welcome back, SNS...Hope you enjoyed your week away! I thought your time off might soften you up and let you accept this Bull... But from your focus on VIX, looks like you're still refusing to accept it...LOL Think I could use a week away..Picked up some bug, and been under the weather all day...sigh.....

To: skinowski who wrote (140493)	1/24/2007 5:30:46 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

You know, I took some seminars with Larry McMillan some ten or fifteen years ago. It seems like I have a different recall than everyone. On the one hand, just about every guy who writes a newsletter points to the late 1980s and "shows" how people learned their lesson in the late 80s because VIX was low and look at what happened to the market (referring to the mini-crash). I read these things and wonder how old the writer was, because there was no VIX until around 1992, 1993. VIX was guesstimated back to get a feel of how it might have worked. All VIX charts prior to around 1992 is estimated. Now I'd swear that McMillan taught that VIX is not the Fear Gauge that people have turned it into. I believe that he pointed out once that VIX had the opposite effect in the early 1990s. That is, the market tended to move higher when VIX was relatively Low. ------- Unfortunately, I don't have VIX Charts going back to the early 90s. And again, my memory might be shot. But I think the real issue with VIX is extremes. That is to say Extreme levels of VIX may tend to lead to sharp turns. Granted single digits is as extreme as you are going to get; also it's as extreme as it's ever been...in the 15 years it's been tracked. I don't think a hard and fast rule over extreme values of VIX can be quantified with such a small data sample as to direction. My guess is that extreme VIX in either direction may only be an indication that a surprising leg may be about to occur but direction isn't predicated on whether VIX is High or Low. That is to say, the current level of VIX may just be predicting a solid up move in the SPX/OEX. ------- I'm sure the trading advisories of the not too distant future will have Slevin's Theory of Volitility right up there with Laffer's Curve and Bollinger's Bands. I thank you. -------- EDIT Hey, how about that move in Gold from the 610/615 area?