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To: CommanderCricket who wrote (78759)1/25/2007 9:14:00 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206316
 
A forecaster forecasts the weather. Now he extrapolates his role and forecasts Billion of Cubic Feet of gas?

It's looking like the IT guys predicting the collapse of data infrastructure due to Y2K during the tech bubble.

Or Gilder promising the digital Nirvana same epoch.



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (78759)1/25/2007 9:16:21 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 206316
 
Bastardi caused a minor uproar around noon by predicting
that the balance of the winter will be much colder than normal, contradicting the more widely held
view that the current El Nino pattern will continue throughout the heating season. Whether
or not you subscribe to Mr. Bastardi’s point of view, the forces driving Natural Gas are currently
more technical than fundamental. Based on the recent activity on the chart as well as our proximity
to several major supports, a lot of traders aren’t comfortable opening up large new short
positions at these prices. February managed to settle above the 200 day moving average, though
only barely. To really begin to feel bullish, we will need to see the market follow through with a
higher close today and probably tomorrow, as well. It would also help if the oil markets could
find a near-term bottom. This morning in ACCESS Natural Gas is down around $0.17,

spragueenergy.com



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (78759)1/25/2007 8:02:21 PM
From: quehubo  Respond to of 206316
 
I see another draw of -180 or so based on 220 GW HDD.

This was a forecast, so the actual data may be higher.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/htdocs/temp/wfheat.states



To: CommanderCricket who wrote (78759)1/25/2007 10:39:58 PM
From: schrodingers_cat  Respond to of 206316
 
About Bastardi's prediction of a 300 Bcf draw:

The highest draw on record was 247 in Jan 2003 on 256 hdds. To get to 300 you would need something like 10-20 degrees below normal all across the country. That means sub-zero in Chicago, 30s in California and frozen oranges in Florida. Even then I don't know if the distribution system could move that much gas.

I don't think 300 is very likely.