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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sober who wrote (25828)	1/26/2007 4:34:40 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78702

trust downside? everything has downside. i believe HTE has already hedged around 60% of 2007 production, but check their presentation on their website. their cash flow per share was CAN$1.30 in Q3, while dividends per share were CAN$1.04. so there is room to maintain dividends. it is reassuring that they recently announced the dividend and left it unchanged. two trusts that recently lower their dividends are CNE and AAV. Their stock did not seem to take a hit. so maybe that tells us of limited downside. i think the upside is large. not only would we get increased dividends, but stock appreciation. to spread your risk out, maybe you should buy an assortment of the high dividend trusts. PWI 14%, CNE 15%, PGH 15%, HTE 18%, DAY-TO 24%, AAV 14%. But maybe the diversification is a delusion. They all have presentations worth reading on their websites. I own these, but others have been mentioned here also: finance.yahoo.com good luck, grommit

To: Sober who wrote (25828)	1/27/2007 12:17:26 AM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78702

it would seem to me that the downside on HTE should be fairly limited unless oil and gas prices fall significantly from here, which is always a possibility, no matter what t. boone pickens tells you <g> i figure that the new tax rules are factored in at this price, and in fact, since the effect of those rules doesn't begin for many years, it is probably more than priced in now it's certainly possible that they will reduce their payout next quarter, or later in the year, especially if oil prices stay in the low 50s or drop to the 40s...i would think that they could reduce the payout to the low double digits in terms of yield without doing much damage to the stock price HTE is only a very small position for me, so while i see it with no more than average risk, and reasonable reward, especially if i can keep selling calls against it each month, it's not one i would feel comfortably buying a big position in...i don't think it will rally significantly unless the tax rule changes are revoked, or unless oil prices surge significantly, neither of which seem likely to me at this point others here probably have a better feel for the various canroy investments, just remember that a balanced view on energy will give you the most reasonable evaluation...you have to throw out the views that oil can only go up from here, etc. JMHO of course