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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (79113)	1/30/2007 1:43:17 PM
From: Carpe per Diem	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206089

Here's the TD "research" note responsible for the pop in CNQ today. Agree 100% on your NXY comment. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T , CNQ-N) C$56.80 Increasing Recommendation to HOLD, Based Largely on Valuation Event: We are increasing our Recommendation to HOLD, based largely on valuation. Details: We are increasing our Recommendation to HOLD, based largely on valuation. While we do not expect huge growth from CNQ during 2007, we believe at these price levels the stock is fairly valued. Valuation: CNQ trades at a risked P/NAV (TD Price Deck) of 166% versus the group average of 117% and a risked P/NAV ($60) of 111% versus the peer group of 92%. On a 2007 P/E basis, CNQ trades at 18.4x versus its peers at 14.5x and at 5.8x versus its peers at 5.4x on a 2007 P/CF basis. Justification of Target Price: Our $58.00 target price was derived by calculating the midpoint of our base NAV (using the TD price deck) and current case NAV (calculated using US$60 WTI) and then adding our forecasted 2006 NAV growth rate. Investment Conclusion: While we do not see a lot of growth within the name heading into 2007, we think valuation levels are fair at this point. We are also recommending that investors close the long ECA/ short CNQ pair trade.