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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (13951)	1/30/2007 8:31:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

i have been using myself as contrary indicator for a while, works great, just no gains ;0) unless we are talking about that dependable standby ... gold :0) which should again whip s&p500 this year, easy ... oh oh, oops ... shoot ... sell gold :0)

To: pezz who wrote (13951)	1/30/2007 10:11:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217545

According to Stratfo report, we may get another does of Tokyo deflation fighting, and if so, shares and gold will again go up: Japan: Dangling on the Edge of Recession Summary Currency manipulation is shaping up to be a major topic for debate at the upcoming G-7 summit. This time around, however, China will not be the only country facing anger –- so will Japan. Such attention could not come at a worse time for Tokyo. Analysis In separate announcements Jan. 29, both the German and Luxembourg finance ministers voiced dissatisfaction with Japan's currency policy. Germany's Peer Steinbrueck said the topic will be brought up at the G-7 summit Feb. 9-10 in his country, while Luxembourg's Jean Claude Junker (who also is the prime minister and the semi-official representative of the common European currency) spoke pointedly. "I want to say more forcefully that Japan's current recovery should be reflected in the yen's exchange rate," he said. Exchange rates have always been a sore subject among the Europeans, but never more so than in the past few months. It is bad enough from the point of view of European manufacturers and exporters that the U.S. dollar is weak, making their exports less competitive. It is worse still that China's creeping revaluation of the yuan looks suspiciously like a hard peg to that same dollar. But now the Japanese are working to weaken their yen as well. With the dollar weak and the yuan lashed to it, the only major currency the yen can devalue against is the euro. And fall it has. Since January 2005 the yen has steadily slipped versus the euro, and is currently trading about 10 percent down. Pressure on their currency policy is something the Japanese most certainly do not need right now. For one, they have only recently defeated deflation, though they are hardly to the point of declaring it banished. When consumers become accustomed to economic problems, they tend to defer spending. On the other side of the supplier-purchaser relationship, that means fewer sales. Fewer sales translate into lower profits, into lower needs for staff and then into cutbacks. Prices drop, and the compounding impact on sentiment defers more purchases, creating a vicious spiral of deflation. Japan began suffering from just such a spiral after its 1992 economic crash. . Ultimately, the only real cure for deflation is to trigger renewed consumer spending, usually by regaining consumer confidence. Stratfor noted in late 2005 that the Japanese consumer had finally "gotten its groove back" and was beginning to spend again. In a country where less than 15 percent of the total economy is linked to exports, revitalizing consumer spending is perhaps the single greatest possible contribution to economic health. With consumer spending finally revitalized, Japan finally had a chance to kick its deflationary problem. But as 2006 rolled on, that nascent recovery faltered, and by December Japan had racked up a sad year in which consumer demand dipped every single month. If the yen is forced to behave like a real currency, Japanese exporters -- the only part of the Japanese economy that is doing well -- will take a very hard hit and eviscerate growth and land Japan right back where it was before the 2006 recovery. And despite the growth of the past year, Japan remains as vulnerable to its past malaise as ever. Tokyo proved unable during the recent recovery to whittle away at its debt mountain at all, so national debt -- leaving out local and pension-related debt -- still totals more than 150 percent of gross national product (GDP). The massive resources that such debt servicing requires is only part of the reason Japan has not been able to recover. The economy remains addicted to state spending and so Japan's budget deficit still runs in excess of 6 percent of GDP, making it the biggest spendthrift in the developed world. Like the other four Japanese economic recoveries of the past 15 years, this one is about to end as Japan once again teeters on the brink of a deflation-assisted recession.

To: pezz who wrote (13951)	2/4/2007 9:30:35 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217545

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I bought more physical, because I wish to get ahead of the surging and desperate crowds of Japan, trapped for so many years in zero rate arena, dissipating away, all needing redemption from coming direness, and all having no place to run to with their excess savings and surplus capital, now being offered a glimmer of hope abcmoney.co.uk "Tokyo bourse to offer ETFs linked to prices of precious metals" China is also working on a similar schema, not intending to be left holding the American bag. The rush will soon be, for exits out of the homeland empire and all its domains, including currency; and even if the USD rises, I reckon gold will rise more. And, should gold drop, no biggie, for in the big picture of USD 6,000 gold, 648 gold is very reasonable. I bought Pandas, for it seems to have some cache that lesser bullions lack, and so skipped out on helping N.America and Australian trade balance, at least directly. My hoard of Panda coins from earlier years pandaamerica.com (just look, they are sooooo beautiful, and dependable too) are at substantial markup to spot, as they well should be, since I chose them over others ;0) Chugs, J

To: pezz who wrote (13951)	2/5/2007 5:29:08 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217545

I do not wonder ... I buy ... for we get closer to the final struggle, day by day Golden suspicions Commentary: Newsletters wonder about market manipulation By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch Last Update: 1:04 AM ET Feb 5, 2007 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The past week was dramatic for gold. And the letters smell manipulation. At Thursday's close, the yellow metal had risen to a high not seen since July last year (briefly). Then heavy selling in New York on Friday eradicated almost the entire week's gain. Which is more significant the metal's ability to reach a new 2007 high, or its inability to hold it? Veteran Market watcher Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters thinks the former. Presenting a weekly chart, he says, in techspeak: "I've drawn the chart along with trendlines to illustrate the 'fanline principle.' The fanline thesis is as follows when three successive and less acute fanlines are drawn, if the item breaks above the third fanline, the item has reversed its trend to the upside. That's what I believe gold has done over the past two weeks. If so, we should see new highs in gold before the year 2007 is out." Russell does not hesitate to question the character of Friday's sell-off: "Ironically, no sooner did gold bullishly break out of its fanline pattern, than the metals were whacked. And I wonder, was this just the action of traders taking profits on a breakout or was this the result of someone or some group dumping a load of gold on the market in an attempt to 'stem the bullish gold tide'? In the end, it really doesn't matte r..." Bill Murphy's thesis that gold is subject to manipulation, advanced in his site lemetropolecafe.com, seems to me to be gaining ground. Earlier this week The Gartman Letter made virtually identical comments as Russell, while doubling its recommended gold exposure. I like to gain perspective from the authoritative 5x3 point and figure chart available on the public portion of Australian site the-privateer.com. This gained another notch this past week and was unmoved by Friday's failure. The Privateer is another service becoming ruder about the integrity of gold trading. On its analysis, a $660 close signals a decisive breakout. It writes: "On Feb. 1, the London PM Gold Fix was $US 660.20 ... The next day, Feb. 2, the spot future Comex contract closed down $US 11.20 at $US 646.20. Gold 'bugs' are not the only ones who can read Gold charts." Martin Pring in www. Pring.com's Technical commentary does not concern itself with the whys of markets. So it serves as a good illustration of how serious Thursday's close was. Pring focuses on the Goldman Sachs Precious Metal Index: "The Goldman Sachs Precious Metal Index is breaking to the upside. The critical level appears to be that around 915 ... a more decisive upside breakout is quite likely now." This was written on Thursday, after a 918.08 close. But Friday's was 901.23. Hmmm Gold and commodity bulls received a crucial increase in support this past week when 13-D Research, written by my old friend Kiril Sokoloff, went bullish. This service, similar to The Gartman Letter in being very expensive and marketed to institutions, publishes weekly and concentrates on matters of grand strategy. It's not followed by the HFD. But its fans say its record is formidable. Buying an outright oil position for what it says is only the second time in its history, 13-D suggests commodities could be starting a "huge rally, led by gold." Once again this is illustrated by a gold chart as of Thursday's close. But 13-D is not likely to be shaken by one day's action.