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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Keating who wrote (3181)	1/31/2007 8:28:18 PM
From: i-node	Respond to of 3386

I really think Toyota is just being very careful in what it is doing. XM's management has, for a couple of years, made it clear that Toyota will operate at its own pace and prefers to make its own remarks. I believe Sirius totally destroyed any opportunity it had for a meaningful relationship with Toyota when Joe Clayton released the lying, bogus midnight PR claiming to have a relationship with Toyota that really didn't exist. While it hurt XM's share price in the short term, XM management ought to have been elated, because it likely sealed SIRI's fate wrt to a deal with Toyota (and perhaps other OEMs, as well). Anyway you slice it, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Nissan are huge wins for XM. When you start talking about 6-7-8 million OEM installs a year, plus whatever can be sold at retail, it starts to suggest that another growth spurt isn't outside the realm of possibility. And these OEMs are the ones that are growing as well as the ones most likely to have buyers who will appreciate the technology and most likely to be willing to spring for a monthly nut on the service fee.

To: Bill Keating who wrote (3181)	2/2/2007 9:52:20 AM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

Or maybe the market is thinking that even robust OEM installations won't be enough to save the industry. A million cars with factory installation is still only 500,000 subscribers. Is that enough? Let's do the math. 3 million OEM installs at an CPGA of $100 costs you 300 million dollars, plus cost of capital. At a 54% "take rate" that nets you 1.62 million subs that agree to become an "Initial subscriber". At 7.6 million subs and 22% annualized Churn you will lose 1.672 million "subscribers" to CHURN annually. So given current management supplied metrics and trends.. You need to spend 300 million dollars annually in OEM CPGA.. Just to remain at "breakeven" on your subscriber numbers in the OEM market. And neither one of these companies have much flexibility in their pricing structure, In my opinion. And so it goes, PCSTEL