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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (25893)	2/1/2007 12:46:54 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78625

Gambling stocks: My guess is that AZECF stock price will move pari passu with WYNN, since AZECF holds so many WYNN shares. And Wynn stock will move now with the investor interest in Macau (imo). That area continues to get a lot of attention by casino developers --- maybe even too much. (I believe though gov't has limited the number of licenses.) Branson seems to be the latest who plans to develop a complex: hotel-online.com On the one hand, maybe the scope/variety of competing casinos and their themes, stores, restaurants, entertainment will serve to create even more interest in Macau as a destination. OTOH, I also read where Macau caters to Chinese gamblers, and these gamblers go there primarily if not solely to gamble and not to have a 'resort experience'. I'm not now adding more to AZECF, but I may. I am considering adding to MPEL. This one is a Macau development company as well, and I've no idea when it'll start generating revenues and profits. Here with MPEL we have a stock with no clear earnings visibility that's touted by Cramer and highly recommended by Motley Fool fool readers. So if the stock should drop (encouraged by a Cramer mind change for example; or perhaps an analyst downgrade in MGM or Wynn or Macau in general), people (including me) will have a tendency to say, "just why am I holding this loser MPEL? Nobody knows if it will be profitable and everybody is getting out". My bet with MPEL though is that 18 months from now, as the company gets closer and closer to completing its casino and getting its share of gambling revenue (and profits, I hope), the stock will be higher than currently. A speculation here by me, not a value proposition. I've spread my bets in this area. I'm still holding suppliers WMS and IGT, and I have shares in MGM and LVS. (And fwiw, still holding gambling stocks BYD, CRYP, OPMR) ---- Aside: I couldn't resist: I just like the way "pari passu" rolls off the tongue. Been waitin' a while to use that expression. -g-