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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oblivious who wrote (71213)	2/1/2007 9:31:37 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I saw that chart the other day. It was on CalculatedRisk's site, and I can see why a casual observer would misinterpret it as the bottom. If memory serves me it was a chart of new home inventory, and showed the new home inventories had peaked. Anyone who actually follows this stuff knows that data doesn't include cancellations, which have been running 1/3 to 1/2 of all sales since June. Housing hasn't even come close to hitting it's lows yet, at least in the US. Prices are dropping, backlogs are dropping, profit margins are dropping, and sales are dropping. Now how is it we hit bottom last June? :)