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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: masa who wrote (59812)	2/7/2007 11:46:07 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 197275

Masa, re: Investing in Cellphone (industry) / Future riches- “ it is over “. Agree, the “cell phone industry” is maturing, and as such the rapid growth during the initial years in the “cell phone industry” has diminished. However, I imagine some good money (10% /year ??) can still be made in investing in the incumbent giants as they increase their EPS via share buy backs / cost reduction measures. However, IMO you (along with most) are overlooking the new wave of investment opportunities encompassing 3G mobile wireless as over 3 billion 2G GSM subs (current + new adds) convert to 3GSM (WCDMA/ UMTS) over the next several years. 3GSM HANDSET SALES (my wag) 2006 2011 2015 ..UNITS (M) 100 500 800 ..ASP’S $340 $180 $150 ..DOLLARS (B) $34.0 $90.0 $120.0 . ..CAGR-YEARS 5 9 ..CAGR- % 21.5 15.0 . . . . One needs to focus on the 3G pure plays (not the incumbents) to reap the riches. A prime beneficiary will be QCOM and may well increase its EPS above the CAGR rates reflected above, via margin improvements from scaling and share repurchases via huge cash flow adds. Further, don't forget the Q has other thinks in the mix than just handset related sales----iMod displays, MediaFLO, Home networking, Homeland Security, etc, etc, A CAGR of 15% isn’t to shabby, doubling your money every 5 years. Another beneficiary appears to be Anadigics (ANAD), the primary supplier of power supply components to the Q’s handset partners.