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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (225517)	2/7/2007 12:26:15 PM
From: economaniack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Tench, do you have better numbers than 13 weeks for processing testing and packaging start to finish? I believe that Intel recently suggested their process times were even longer. That is already way longer than the two months you offered. AMD starts production with much less than a thousand wafers per month, so early weeks may only run a hundred wafers or so with yields around 10% they could get as few as 10-20 good chips per wafer, so several weeks is necessary to build an inventory of even a thousand good die. So AMD could "launch" with a few hundred chips at the end of the 4th month after release to production. At the end of the fifth month they should have thousands and at the end of the sixth month (when they could well have a thousand wafers a week coming off the line) they should be able to supply a hundred thousand or more - enough for a real launch of a mainstream desktop or notebook chip. I have no idea when Barcelona will begin production, nor do I know when it actually taped out. But I am pretty sure that even if AMD really rushes a limited launch, they will be at least 4 months from first production wafers in to launch. If you think they won't start production wafers until June then they won't have any real product until October. Invest accordingly. E