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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (7559)2/9/2007 5:36:27 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
China holds firm as G7 spars over weak yen and yuan

Friday, February 09, 2007 2:12:51 PM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters News
For all stories from the meetings in Essen double click [G7/G8]

(Adds China's Jin, German spokesman rectifying yen comment)

By Paul Carrel and Krista Hughes

ESSEN, Germany, Feb 9 (Reuters) - China fended off renewed U.S. pressure over yuan weakness and Japan took the heat from Europe over the yen's slide as finance ministers from the G7 club of wealthy industrial countries met on Friday.

China, invited for a first time to the strategic part of Group of Seven deliberations during a two-day meeting chaired by Germany, said it was doing what it could to make adjustments and was doing so at its own pace.

"According to our plans and our economic ability, we are increasing our yuan exchange rate flexibility, and I think this is now suitable," China central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said.

With the yen continuing to trade near record lows against the euro, Japan came under pressure from euro zone countries worried that their exporters stand to lose out disproportionately in world markets.

Germany briefly sowed confusion when Steinbrueck appeared to play down the extent of the yen problem.

Asked if there was evidence that the weak yen was damaging Europe, he told Reuters Television: "No, I don't think so." A Finance Ministry spokesman later said there had been a misunderstanding on the issue. "This is not the minister's position," the spokesman said.

The other European countries in the G7 worried by the yen are France and Italy.

But U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson gave the Europeans short shrift, reiterating earlier comments that the yen was a currency traded freely in the financial markets, unlike the yuan, which he wanted to see rising faster.

"The yen is market-determined. It's a very broad, liquid market, so it trades in a marketplace based on underlying economic fundaments, period," Paulson told reporters here.

The yen has lost four times as much ground versus the euro than against the dollar in the past year.

Back in Washington, Paulson came under fire for his stand on the yen from a group of U.S. Democrats, two of them from Detroit, heartland of U.S. car manufacturing.

"We urge you to press the Japanese government to reverse their weak yen policy through concrete action," the politicians said in a letter to Paulson, which was released to the media.

The G7 talks, which began with a champagne reception and dinner on Friday and run into Saturday, involve ministers and central bankers from the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada.

Defending his corner, Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi repeated that the yen's value should reflect the fundamentals of the economy, something the Europeans argue is not the case and something U.S. envoy Paulson believes is in fact the case.

Japan's ultra-low interest rates of 0.25 percent have encouraged investors to sell the yen in favour of investments in higher yielding currencies, pushing the Japanese currency to a 21-year low on a real, trade-weighted basis.

The government is worried that interest rates may be raised too fast and before the coffin on nearly a decade of deflation is finally nailed shut.


CHINESE CHECK OUT

Germany invited several emerging market countries to Essen and reserved special treatment for China, the fourth-largest economy in the world now but not a member of the G7 -- a club founded in the 1970s when Communist Party-ruled China was still closed to the outside.

Chinese Finance Minister Jin Renqing discussed currencies with Steinbrueck and the two posed for photographs ahead of the wider gatherings.

Nothing much leaked from the face-to-face meeting, except news that Jin disliked the hotel chosen for VIPs and switched to another one with top-class food, according to a German official.

"They simply said they don't like it," the official, who was speaking on condition of anonymity, said of the first hotel.

Other Essen invitees were Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. Steinbrueck said systematic participation and even membership for those big emerging market players made sense.

A small group of debt campaigners gathered near the meeting place to keep up the pressure on rich countries to deliver on commitments to boost aid to Africa and allot 0.7 percent of gross domestic product to development aid.

For their part the ministers were also due to discuss how they could promote development of capital markets in Africa.

The G7 meeting was also to set to talk about hedge fund transparency and systemic risks such funds may pose.

Loosely policed hedge funds have become a powerful market force, originally catering to the ultra-rich but concern is mounting about increasing links to mainstream banks, mainstays of the global financial system. Their assets have doubled in the United States to more than $1.3 trillion in the last five years.

Steinbrueck said he aimed to draw up a concrete concept for dealing with hedge funds by the end of this year when Germany hands on the stewardship of the G7.

"We are not talking about regulation," Steinbrueck said in the interview with Reuters Television. "We're at the very beginning of that discussion."





To: John Pitera who wrote (7559)2/12/2007 9:40:50 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
Hi John,

That ,if it happens,will be the single most important development to save GM and Ford.

Parity between the yen and the dollar,over the last 20 years has been the only time domestics have regained lost market share.

Bob



To: John Pitera who wrote (7559)2/12/2007 11:44:28 AM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
Full Text of G7 Communique --

Saturday, February 10, 2007 8:16:09 AM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters News

ESSEN, Germany, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The following is the full text of the communique issued by G7 finance ministers and central bank governors after talks in Essen on Saturday.



We, Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met today to evaluate the global economic outlook. Global growth is more balanced. In our economies, performance remains favourable. The US economy is experiencing solid activity, while adjusting to a more sustainable growth path. Canada and the UK remain on a strong and balanced growth path. The euro area is experiencing an increasingly broad-based upswing. Japan's recovery is on track and is expected to continue. We are confident that the implications of these developments will be recognised by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments of risks.

Amid lower energy prices and moderating inflationary pressures risks have abated, but we will remain vigilant. We will continue to pursue sound policies to foster sustained and balanced growth and support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances. ln this respect, we welcome China's commitment to rebalance growth.

We remain committed to resisting protectionist sentiment and fully support the re-launch of the Doha trade negotiations announced in Geneva. We firmly believe that all participants have the responsibility to ensure a successful outcome of the Doha round as it will enhance global growth and contribute to poverty reduction. All of us accept our responsibility for ensuring that Aid for Trade will help secure the full benefits of trade for developing countries. To further liberalise cross-border capital markets, we agreed to explore within the G7 free trade in securities based on mutual recognition of regulatory regimes. We support enhanced cooperation to enforce intellectual property rights and combat counterfeiting which are crucial to our knowledge economy.

We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate. ln emerging economies with large and growing current account surpluses, especially China, it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so that necessary adjustments will occur.

We also met with Ministers of Finance from a number of key emerging market economies to discuss the role of local bond markets in fostering growth and financial stability. ln this context developing local currency bond markets deserves higher priority to reduce emerging countries' vulnerability to external shocks and financial crises and to promote growth. We look forward to the results of the high level conference on May 9-10 in Frankfurt on market experience, which will help to identify concrete recommendations and sustain the momentum of reform.

We discussed recent developments in global financial markets, including hedge funds, which along with the emergence of advanced financial techniques including credit derivatives, have contributed significantly to the efficiency of the financial system. Nevertheless the assessment of potential systemic and operational risks associated with these activities has become more complex and challenging. Given the strong growth of the hedge fund industry and the instruments they trade, we need to be vigilant. We therefore agreed to further pursue the issue. We will exchange views with the private sector and ask the Financial Stability Forum to update its 2000 Report on Highly Leveraged Institutions.

We reaffirm our strong belief that fundamental reform is necessary for the IMF to maintain its credibility and effectiveness in the changing global economy. We remain committed to making IMF quota shares more aligned with members' relative weight and role in the world economy, and to enhance the participation and voice of low-income countries. We also stress the importance of improving IMF surveillance. To be more effective surveillance must be applied equally and even-handedly, focused on external stability, and subject to a clear accountability framework, without creating new obligations. ln this context, we welcome the Managing Director's proposals to update the 1977 Decision on Surveillance over Exchange Rate Policies and for a remit and look forward to moving these forward as a priority. We take note of the Report on the Sustainable Long- Term Financing of the IMF that provides a good basis for further discussion. We support the recently-launched reform of the governance of the World Bank.

We discussed the complementary role of Good Financial Governance in Africa in channelling resources to helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. We agreed to develop - together with African partners - an action plan that includes a joint reform strategy to promote effective and transparent budget processes, a vigorous implementation of existing initiatives to increase transparency such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (ElT1) and its potential extension to other sectors, and the enhancement of reforms and capacity building efforts in the area of tax systems, stabilisation fund, public expenditure management, and debt management. ln turn, it is imperative that creditors and donors take account of debt sustainability issues in their lending practices. To this end the development of a charter of responsible lending would represent an important step. Finally, we will explore measures to support financial sector development in Africa.

We welcome the 9 February 2007 launch in Rome of the pilot Advance Market Commitments (AMC) for pneumococcus, an innovative financing mechanism designed to mobilise private investment in research and development of life-saving vaccines benefiting poor countries. We discussed the importance of making progress on education, including in science and technology in the poorest countries and look forward to the forthcoming International Conference on Education.

We consider energy efficiency and the promotion of energy diversification, notably through renewable energies, to become an increasingly important issue for our economies as well as emerging market economies in view of energy security, high and volatile energy prices and climate change. We agree that market based policy measures, which could include taxes and emission trading, should be effectively designed to meet specific conditions in each country. At the same time, we remain committed to a transparent and forward looking dialogue with energy-producing countries.

We are committed to fight money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit financing involving similar risks to the stability and integrity of financial markets. We are committed to the effective and timely implementation of UN Resolutions l540, 1718, 1737. To this end, we ask the Financial Action Task Force to examine the risks involved in weapons of mass destruction proliferation finance and to review its mandate. We urge the FATF to collaborate intensely with jurisdictions that have failed to recognise the international standards. We call on the IMF and the World Bank to closely cooperate with the FATF.

We welcomed the successful outcome of the Paris conference on Lebanon and we discussed economic prospects in the West Bank and Gaza strip. We agreed to keep this under review.




To: John Pitera who wrote (7559)2/19/2007 4:26:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Does c.bank predictability encourage carry trades?
Monday, February 19, 2007 1:00:09 AM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters News
By Krista Hughes

FRANKFURT, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Group of Seven central bankers recently urged investors not to make risky one-way currency bets. Ironically central banks may themselves be at least partly to blame for the practices they want to discourage -- so-called carry trades.

Predictable interest rate policy has driven away much of the the volatility that speculators usually profit from and made the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-interest currencies such as the yen to make big returns elsewhere, irresistible.

In periods of low financial market volatility, investors are much more inclined to +seek higher returns from riskier assets and hold these positions for longer because the perceived chances of adverse prices swings are lower.

In the fixed income sphere, that means funding investments in high yielding securities by borrowing in cheap currencies.

The trend has been driven by Japanese interest rates staying so low for so long, while interest rates elsewhere have moved higher, for example in the United States and in Europe, or were at high levels anyway.

"If I make monetary policy predictable, I shouldn't be surprised if investors rely on it," German Bundesbank board member Edgar Meister said in a newspaper interview this week.

Barclays Capital economist Thorsten Polleit described carry trades as a "natural phenomenon" in a world where central banks fix interest rates and most major currencies float freely.

"By being explicit about the future path of interest rates you induce carry trades, to exploit the interest rate differential and the reduced uncertainty."

The use of the yen to fund carry trades has ballooned because Japan interest rates remained anchored close to zero over the past few years while other central banks around the world started lifting their rates.

Rapid Japanese growth at the end of 2006 has fanned expectations the Bank of Japan might raise rates next week to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. This helped lift the yen against the dollar and euro.

But even if the Bank of Japan does raise rates, analysts do not expect the carry trade to fall out of fashion because the catch-up distance on interest rates versus other major regions is huge.

Key policy rates in the United States and Britain are at 5.25 percent. Australia's is 6.25 pct, New Zealand's 7.25 percent, Turkey's 17.5 percent and the euro zone's 3.5 percent.

"I don't think that Japan can ever hike enough to stop carry trades," said Joerg Isselmann, a currency strategist at Germany's BHF Bank.


NOT JUST RATES

Still, the endurance of carry trades is not just down to central bank behaviour, foreign exchange experts say.

"Sterling-yen is one of the most popular carry trades and you can't accuse the Bank of England of being predictable," said Derek Halpenny, currency economist at BTM-UFJ.

The flow of funds from Japan into other countries is driven by a range of factors including large amounts of liquidity on global markets and a growing risk appetite among Japanese retail investors.

"In Japan you have small clubs of housewives trading currencies on mobile phones. The carry trade has gone crazy here," Morgan Stanley FX strategist Stephen Jen said from Tokyo.

Low volatility on global FX markets, which turn over more than $2 trillion a day, is a key driver of carry trades as it reduces traders' other options for turning a quick profit.

"Without volatility it's become more and more difficult to take a currency position based on a view of it going up or down," said Halpenny.

"Therefore looking at yield differentials and carry trades in that environment is a more attractive option."

Implied volatility on currency options, which measures the range investors think a currency will trade in over a given period of time, has fallen to record lows in recent months.

At the same time, traders have amassed record bets against the yen. Positioning data from the International Monetary Market on the Chicago futures exchange showed a record short yen position worth almost $18 billion, according to Reuters calculations, in the week ending Jan. 30, although they have come back since.

NO REAL CONCERN?

Strategists might get an answer soon to the question of whether central bank predictability drives the carry trade, as central banks become more unpredictable once their rates peak.

The U.S. Federal Reserve reached the end of its tightening cycle in June 2006, and many analysts forecast the ECB will reach the same point by June 2007.

"Will yen carry trades be compromised? I'm not sure. They will be if volatility increases to reflect this uncertainty," said Morgan Stanley's Jen.

"In theory it should, but in practice I'm not so sure."

Still, even if higher Japanese rates rise crimp currency speculators' style, Jen said carry trades were a fairly minor concern for the global economy.

"Yen carry trades could be seen as a slightly negative side effect from policymakers attempts to try to prevent bigger and more important events from blowing up," he said.

(Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever in London)