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Strategies & Market Trends : Sector Analysis (mostly) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hubris33 who wrote (12)	2/12/2007 9:41:32 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22

I'm still bullish on NG LT, but IT and ST it looks like the narrrow trading range may persist. It's one of those LT value plays that if the sectors runs and gold breaks over $700 I think it'll still be lagging to allow for a decent entry. I still have some, but it's been reduced by about 70-75% in most accounts in early Jan. Reasons I expect it to lag ST: 1) About half or more of their value is from copper. With commods. getting hit gold only producers should fare better over the next year. 2) Financing (full or partial) for Galore creek coming soon. Could cause the stock to pop, but they may have to give away more than I'd like to get the money in terms of JV or terms. A little more uncertainty than I'd like ST. 3) ABX continues to play games Biggest catalysts to the upside include 1) New resource estimate from ABX on Donlin (expect this to be mostly in-fill drilling though so probably not much of a pop on this news). ABX earnings on Feb 22nd may be release then. 2) Galore JV financing (coin flip imho) 3) Donlin lawsuit news (could drag past the Nov 2007 deadline) 4) Gold going over $700 again As such I'll mostly wait on the sidelines for now. NG does a good job at finding resources, but only a mediocre job on the rest. The were definately outplayed by ABX. Only their shareholders saved them. Nothing that NG did. I like GSS a lot again. Largest position by far. Cheap relative to peers, nice catalysts going forward and very nice TA. Needs to come back to earth ST though to add more. Looked at AZK briefly last night. Seems ok, but doesn't seem like a good enough value for me. Maybe I'm missing something. Don't know about AXR.v. May check into it, but concentrating more these days on producers. Thanks for the suggestion.