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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (25994)	2/16/2007 4:09:58 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78747

Upped my few shares of AHM a little. Okay, so people say they don't have much subprime loans. Alternate A loans they apparently do have. My understanding that's for people who almost but don't quite qualify for standard loans. Perhaps because they missed a payment once. So I'm partly betting on these folks not to default in numbers like the subprime people are apparently doing. Doesn't seem like that good a bet. (For a few shares, and for the div. yield, I'll take a chance.) Jumbo loans don't seem that safe to me either. Just because a family can afford to get a $500k house loan and buy their McMansion, that doesn't mean they can't default. Or have financial problems. And if they do, if they have more options (sell house, move to smaller/cheaper place), that would still be turning in loans (the jumbos) which may or may not hurt AHM who wrote them. All in all, I'm not so confident of the company going forward. OTOH, I'm not one who always needs to be confident before I take a position.