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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (26010)	2/14/2007 9:34:18 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78714

ACAS. a great press release this morning. biz.yahoo.com here's what dividends have been the past few years. 3.68 for 2007 - projected 3.33 for 2006 - actual 3.08 for 2005 finance.yahoo.com IMHO, the stock was undervalued 1-1-06 and is probably fairly valued right now. maybe a couple of dollars too high. so we probably cannot count on too much price increase this year. But long term -- if the dividend goes up 8% to 10% per year, we should expect a 8% to 10% price increase in the stock. that keeps the yield constant. add that to the 8% dividend and we get 16% to 18% annual gain. cool. As I posted, I sold a bunch last month, but still it is among my largest holdings. grommit

To: Paul Senior who wrote (26010)	2/14/2007 10:23:33 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78714

I wrote some sept calls on 1/3 of my cnq exposure. It will probably soar now. works out to about 8% over 7 months, if the stock goes nowhere. if it goes above 55 then I get another 7% or so.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (26010)	2/15/2007 10:34:50 AM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78714

These CAT guys seem to do a lot to diversify, enhance the brand, and hold the customer Paul, I would add to your list of CAT strengths their diesel engine business, which has moved from a propiertary model to now where 90% of sales are to third-party customers. Engines make up 30% of CAT's sales. Engine inventory concerns appear to be behind them. Engine/turbine sales were up 24% last Q and engine margins were up 170bps because of better pricing and volumes. Two weeks ago CAT affirmed '07 guidance and today came out with a stock buy back. Another plus IMO is CAT's top notch management. Current examples: TOKYO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) said on Thursday it planned to take control of a construction machinery venture with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. as part of its efforts to beef up its presence in Asia. Caterpillar, the world's largest construction machinery maker, is keen on expanding in fast-growing Asian markets such as China as it sees a downbeat demand outlook for diesel engines and heavy equipment as the U.S. economy slows. Mitsubishi Heavy, Japan's largest machinery maker, said Caterpillar is in talks with Mitsubishi to raise the U.S. company's stake in their 50-50 construction machinery joint venture to about two-thirds. Mitsubishi Heavy spokesman Hideo Ikuno said the sale of part of its stake in the joint venture, Shin Caterpillar Mitsubishi Ltd., was in line with a strategy of shifting resources to core businesses such as power systems, aerospace and turbo chargers. Construction machinery is no longer considered a core operation. Late last year, Caterpillar said it expected sales in China to quadruple as a percentage of its global sales by 2010 as the country rapidly builds more ports, energy projects and roads, and moved its Asia Pacific Operations headquarters to Beijing from Tokyo. Caterpillar Asia Pacific Operations spokesman Jim Dugan said Japan represents a mature market for his company where it makes high-quality products, and China is a market with a large growth potential. "It (the announcement) is really a sign of our recognition of the importance of the Japanese market to Caterpillar and our commitment to that market and our customers in Japan," he said. Goldman Sachs analyst Kunio Sakaida wrote in a note to clients that he sees the news as positive for Mitsubishi's stock price as it would enable the company to concentrate its resources on diesel engines and turbo chargers, the outlook for which is good. The venture, established in 1963, produces and sells hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders and bulldozers. It booked sales of 386 billion yen ($3.2 billion) in the business year ended March 2006. As a group, Mitsubishi Heavy had sales of 2.8 trillion yen. Mitsubishi Heavy's Ikuno said the talks would likely see Mitsubishi Heavy's stake in the venture fall to about one-third. The venture has capital of 23.1 billion yen. ******************** NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc., (CAT) a maker of heavy construction and mining equipment, said on Thursday it plans a new $7.5 billion share buyback over the next five years, citing its confidence in long-term growth prospects and cash-flow generation. The Peoria, Illinois-based company said its board of directors authorized the repurchase program, which will start when the current $6.4 billion buyback program is completed in the next few months, a year and a half ahead of schedule. The company expects to have 640 million shares outstanding at the end of the new buyback program. Caterpillar said its priorities for the use of cash remain capital expenditures, acquisitions, funding pension programs and raising dividends, with the rest devoted to buybacks. The company also said Thursday it is in talks to raise its stake in a construction machinery venture with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. . Caterpillar stock rose $1.68, or 2.5 percent, to $67.84 on the New York Stock Exchange. ************ 5 year monthly chart. Note the EPS and PE lines. ************ Company: CAT Date: 2/16/07 Next year's expected earnings: $6.15 EPS growth rate used for estimate: 12% (vs. consensus of 14.5%) Multiple Graham used for estimate: 8.5 Graham Fair Value: $140.71 Current Price: $67.50 $ difference: $73.21 Percent Growth to Fair Value: 108.46% ************** I added more. CAT now 7% of my portfolio.