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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil Sands Trust -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2)	2/17/2007 2:17:21 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15

I Have No Doubt Your Math Pans Out Pretty Well. I am very bullish on the CAD, however. I think it will go back and re-test the old high from last year. So, we might want to play around with that variable. I would plug in a CAD averaging .8900 this year. I also think the strip pricing for crude looks good at 63.00 as you say, though, I've actually allowed the thought to re-enter my mind that we might see a new high in crude this year. The un-natural effect of these OPEC cuts are about to intersect with demand, imo. I look for the 01 July - 30 Sep area for a new high. I'd be tempted to plug in 62.00 at least for 2007, but my gut tells me 65.00. We could see a book-end to the volatility we've already seen below 60.00, in the 70-80 range. Were that to happen, we might finish out 2007 with tons of noise in the 50-60, and the 70-80 levels, with the avg coming in at 65.00. That's my sense. CAD: stockcharts.com[g,a]djclynay[dd][pf][ila12,26,9][J26093469,Y]&r=7 Selected Strips: futuresource.com What was a surprise to me last year was how quickly the higher royalty rate kicked in. I should have know that, but, I pay less attention to my COS holding as I regard it as something I want to own through the 2012-2015 period. Actually, what mystifies me is some apparent volatility in the royalty rate, since it kicked in in 2H 2006. My view is that Imperial Oil is now the natural buyer for COS, now that they operate Syncrude in addition to their 25% holding. When the trust structure expires in 2011, I see little reason for COS to exist as a standalone corporation. They will remain the quintessential Trust, until then. In fact, Ottowa should consider a singular exemption for COS alone, given its history (grin). So I don't see corporate status as something COS can utilize, as I assume they will not be on a big growth path. But I don't really care. I just want to own a piece of Syncrude. I own Imperial Oil as well. I think conventional oil will be favored this year, as far as the action in the equities is concerned. I've not bought more COS since we last visited these levels in the week after the Ottowa announcement. It's encouraging that so many of the research houses no longer like it. Gregor