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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (148582)	2/18/2007 11:45:23 AM
From: noj	Respond to of 152472

The way of the future? from Seeking Alpha "At the 3GSM conference in Barcelona last week, Vodafone (VOD) CEO Arun Sarin delivered a rare glimpse of the future and warned the mobile industry of new technologies that will usurp their business and the impending obsolescence of the 3G standard. “As an industry it takes us a long time to get things done; we need to move faster otherwise others will eat our lunch,” said Sarin. “Is WiMAX the Elephant in the room?” someone asked from the audience. Sarin noted that WiMAX is now a serious contender for mobile broadband. “It is an interesting technology that’s not really ready for prime time the way that we build our networks today,” Sarin said, referring to current circuit-switched mobile networks that were built for voice, and which will not be in synch with the future data-driven 4G networks that will use IP-OFDM technology. The compelling point that Sarin drives home is that the mobile industry is shackled with old technology that cannot stand-up to the current demands of data hungry consumers. The reality for most mobile networks is that they must quickly find new technologies if they are to remain in the game. With dwindling revenue from voice services, Sarin told listeners that mobile networks must speed the development of data services to remain competitive. “If we don’t build our broadband networks we will have this opportunity taken away from us,” Sarin said, and added confidently “We need to seize the moment here.” With such emphatic statements, one might think that Mr Sarin held a crystal ball in his hip pocket. He intimated that Vodafone has grown frustrated with the pace of GSM development, and thus it became evident that Sarin was urging the mobile industry to prepare for an eventual paradigm shift. Vodafone an active WiMAX player For some time Vodafone has distanced itself from the 3G vs WiMAX debate, and for good reason. Vodafone partners and subsidiaries are already planning WiMAX babies of their own. In fact they are more than just a little bit pregnant! According to publicly available data, Vodafone has already placed a significant bet on WiMAX, with investment, op’s and network infrastructure in various stages of deployment. Perhaps that is why Mr Sarin wisely decided that the 3GSM conference was the appropriate platform to herald the WiMAX revolution, while choosing very carefully any words that might seem to disparage other technologies. An each-way bet! WiMAX deployed in France Vodafone subsidiary SFR in France has already deployed a WiMAX network with its partner Neuf Cegetel, and according to several sources, has been testing the integration of WiMAX with its mobile services. Vodafone network partner MTC-Vodafone recently won a license for WiMAX spectrum in Bahrain, and according to sources there, the service should offer full mobility by next year. Moreover, the company is also expected to bid on WiMAX licenses to be auctioned in Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the coming months. Vodafone acquired a WiMAX license in Greece last year, and is deploying a network in Malta. The company also has been testing WiMAX in New Zealand, and in South Africa, Alan Knott-Craig, the CEO of Vodafone subsidiary Vodacom, voiced his frustration with the delayed auction of WiMAX licenses last November and declared “We don’t have a WiMAX licence and I don’t want to wait anymore!” 3G fails to score The technology LTE, an upgrade of current 3G technology, has been cited as the only potential competitor to WiMAX. However many question whether it can stand the muster of tomorrow’s 4G networks. Mr. Sarin admitted that LTE is far from being implemented, let alone standardised, and astonished his audience by suggesting that LTE may not even be supported by Vodafone in the future. Further damaging the outlook for LTE, Hakan Djuphammar, systems architecture director at Ericsson (ERIC), said “if Ericsson sees any business possibilities in WiMAX, it can quickly develop the standard,” according to a report in Dagens Nyheter. This sounds like something Sony would have said in 1988 shortly before it abandoned Betamax for the VHS standard, as Ericsson is the prime developer of LTE technology. Padmasree Warrior, chief technology officer at Motorola (MOT), said during the conference that WiMAX is a far superior technology that Motorola ardently supports, and that within three years, WiMAX will be fully developed and deployed, while LTE may not even be on the market. The cloud over 3G grew darker when Mr Sarin noted that less than 10% of Vodafone revenues are derived from 3G services. Thus, adopting WiMAX over LTE is a clever “bet on every number of the roulette wheel” strategy, one that eventually will allow Vodafone to dovetail into the “total communications” solution, a mantra that CEO Sarin now champions. Time to market seems mission critical for mobile broadband technologies, and most speakers at the 3GSM conference seemed convinced that the wireless broadband crown already has been passed to WiMAX. Mr Sarin left no doubt that he is convinced of the threat posed to LTE technology by WiMAX. “The industry could be left arguing over standards while WiMAX services roll out and make [LTE] irrelevant.” "