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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (7584)2/19/2007 5:27:40 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
The US Savings Rate and It's Incomplete Calculations of Savings

The Right Way To Count Your Pile of Money
February 17, 2007; Page B1

The latest government figures show that Americans are socking away less for our futures than during any other sustained period since the Great Depression.

That sounds alarming.

However, a close look at how the government calculates personal saving suggests the number may be incomplete. Affluent Americans, especially, ought to be figuring their own savings differently -- counting important things that we'll add up below. Once you do your own math, you'll have a clearer snapshot of where your wealth really lies, and a strong foundation to use as you build your financial plan.

First, a bit about the government figure. This month, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis put the nation's personal saving at negative $116.6 billion for December 2006.

To get that number, the bureau starts with after-tax disposable income then subtracts "personal consumption" of all sorts.

Here's what doesn't get counted, though: the increased value of stocks or mutual funds in brokerage or retirement accounts, or the rising value of your home. Why not? In part, because the government doesn't trust fluctuating markets, where sudden downturns can wipe out paper gains.

Crashes happen. Still, a different number, the Federal Reserve's most recent (2004) median family net worth figure, is $93,000. That's an all-time high; unlike Commerce, the Fed does figure in brokerage and retirement-accounts, plus homes.

If you're already trying to figure out where you stand, pay attention to the nomenclature. Commerce's study of personal saving is all about the verb -- "saving" -- what you make, minus what you spend.

But a more complete snapshot may well come from also adding in your "savings," the noun -- an accounting of your total assets and how they've grown, even if you haven't realized the gains yet. So try adding in these elements too:

Homeowners could estimate what their residences are worth and subtract what it would take to pay off the mortgage (plus taxes and closing costs). Take the resulting figure and knock off another 10% to be safe, since the market could fall in the time it takes to sell it.

Meanwhile, brokerage or retirement accounts that are 15 years or more old probably have nice gains racked up above and beyond the intermittent deposits. Lop off 20% in case of an unforeseen crash next week (a bit less if you have lots of bonds or cash).

Economists like the Kansas City Federal Reserve's C. Alan Garner have suggested another possibility: Don't count all of your educational expenses for you or your kids as "consumption," as the Commerce Department does. Instead, credit yourself for saving if schooling will lead to higher incomes.

Adding all of these numbers up to figure out what you have "saved" turns out to be the easy part. Calculating what you'll need -- and whether you're on track to get there -- is much harder when simultaneously saving for retirement, college, health care and other big-ticket items. Financial planners offer the best help here, since personal circumstances vary so widely.

One further caveat: Redefining savings does leave some macro questions unanswered, too. For instance, will enough people be able to afford the stocks and houses that retirees will want to offload, without damaging the economy?

Still, there's no need to let the government figures depress you. You may not be a total spendthrift after all.

• Save your feedback: ron.lieber@wsj.com1