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Remember this perverted moment in history?
McCain's hug in '04 may help him in '08
By Geoff Earle
This is the second in a series of weekly features profiling the 2008 presidential hopefuls.
For those “McCainiacs” still nursing wounds from the 2000 South Carolina Republican primary, the scene was among the most searing images of the 2004 campaign.
President Bush, at the height of a tough reelection fight, hugged Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), his former primary opponent, at a campaign event in Pensacola, Fla., and then gave him a kiss on the side of the head.
The gesture of GOP solidarity was a carefully orchestrated coup for Bush, who had his hands full fending off a Vietnam veteran from the left, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). It signaled to Republicans — even those harboring doubts about some of Bush’s policies on the war and the economy — that they should rally around the president to advance the overall Republican agenda.
But over time, the gesture might prove to be equally important to McCain, who could once again make a run for the presidency in 2008.
If he does run a successful campaign to capture the GOP nomination, McCain will need to reach out beyond his unique base of support among Democrats, independents and Republicans (his popular appeal divides about evenly among all three groups in polls). This time, he will need to do a better job of winning over some of the GOP establishment voters who turned against him in South Carolina after a series of negative attacks by Bush campaign surrogates.
Already, some are predicting that McCain — who is one of the best-known and most-liked Republicans in the country — will fashion a campaign aimed at winning over GOP standard-bearers.
“If McCain runs in ’08, it will be a totally different campaign than 2000,” said Scott Reed, who ran Bob Dole’s failed 1996 campaign. “He’s in a different position. He is a different type of Republican leader, and he was instrumental in helping George W. Bush get reelected. That did not go unnoticed by Republicans throughout the country.”
Jim DeMint, the newly elected conservative senator from South Carolina, added, “I don’t see any problems with the party. His independence is respected. That’s not saying he’d be the party’s pick, [but] I don’t think he’s burned any bridges.”
McCain traveled the country for Bush in 2004, delivered a prime-time speech at Bush’s convention and spoke favorably about the president at key times during the campaign — despite his long-standing friendship with Kerry. McCain came to Kerry’s defense during attacks on Kerry’s war record by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, but he otherwise emphasized his conservative philosophy, saying that Bush had led the nation with “moral clarity and firm resolve.”
McCain, asked off the Senate floor recently about his political plans, replied that, for the next two years, “I want to be a good senator,” emphasizing committee work. “Then we’ll look at the situation two years from now. Until then, there’s no point in me speaking about it.”
Then, in one of his trademark quips — and deflections — McCain grabbed hold of the arm of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and ducked into the elevator, introducing Obama as “my new campaign manager.”
Since Bush’s election, McCain has remained a force to be reckoned with in the Senate. He pushed through landmark campaign-finance legislation, which Bush eventually embraced. He teamed with Kerry on legislation to fight global warming. He has railed against what he views as excessive government spending, with mixed results. He opposed Bush’s tax cuts but did not take nearly as high profile a role as such GOP centrists as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine).
Despite his reputation for having a hot temper, McCain has always been strategic about what issues he chooses to take up — knowing full well that, because of his national prominence and maverick reputation, a few choice skeptical words about a Bush proposal might make a big national story.
During Armed Services Committee hearings on prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib, he took some jabs at Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld but never called for his resignation. (McCain later said he had “no confidence” in Rumsfeld.) Likewise, McCain voted to confirm the nomination of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, whom some Democrats opposed because of his authorship of memos dealing with what tactics would be considered torture. McCain was himself subjected to torture in a Vietnamese POW camp.
McCain maintains a unique ability to attract media attention because of his reputation as a maverick and his membership in the president’s party. Although he had to relinquish his chairmanship of the Commerce Committee because of term limits, the source of his real power has always been his national reputation and his willingness to use it to take on authority.
McCain got major national exposure when Major League Baseball players were called to Capitol Hill to testify in the steroids scandal. He has been closely identified with the issue and has crusaded for years against gambling on college athletics.
Although McCain had to settle for the gavel at the Indian Affairs Committee when he gave up Commerce, he has pushed forward a probe into charges that Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff exploited Indian tribes by charging excessive fees to lobby Congress about casino gambling. Abramoff is closely associated with House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas).
“John has done a very good job keeping his name up and out there in a responsible way on all issues,” said conservative Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho).
Craig said he often disagrees with McCain but acknowledged that “he would be a very viable candidate,” although he didn’t know how McCain would fare against socially conservative candidates in a primary.
Others, including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and Sens. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), George Allen (R-Va.) and Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), might be better positioned to court socially conservative voters. “Americans like reformers,” said Craig, “and they want someone from the outside.”
McCain’s favorable-to-unfavorable ratings in a March Quinnipiac College poll were an enviable 35 to 8. He is among the candidates most favored by Republicans in early polls for 2008, along with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and McCain beats potential Democratic challengers Kerry and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in early polls.
According to Reed, Republicans would be more receptive to McCain in 2008 because they want to keep control of the White House and fend off a difficult challenger like Clinton.
“Republicans this cycle are going to be looking at who can beat Hillary,” Reed said. “McCain is a lifetime conservative who is a strong economic conservative on federal spending, and he can win. The winning factor is always big with primary voters. Those early states like to go with a winner.”
Marshall Wittmann, a former McCain aide who is now with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, recalled how, at the GOP convention in New York, McCain got mobbed by supporters. “I just think it’s a myth that he ever had bad relations with the [GOP] rank and file,” Wittmann said.
He said Republican opponents of McCain had mellowed because of McCain’s loyal support of Bush. Wittmann also rejected as a myth the idea that McCain was somehow moderate or left of center. There were rumors leading up to 2004, fueled by Democrats but dismissed by McCain, that he might consider running on the Democratic ticket.
“The truth is that he’s fairly conservative on a range of issues, from Social Security privatization to the war in Iraq to fiscal responsibility,” Wittmann said. McCain voted against the new Medicare prescription-drug benefit, arguing that it was too costly.
He nevertheless wins support from Democrats because of his willingness to support some major Democratic priorities on the economy and the environment and his willingness to work with members of the other party.
Despite McCain’s reputation as a maverick, Wittmann said, McCain’s Teddy Roosevelt-inspired philosophy was becoming more widespread within the party. “Being a maverick on tax cuts and supporting spending restraint may be an asset in 2008 with the deficits,” Wittmann said. “I could make a very strong argument that what is maverick today will be fairly mainstream in three years.”
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