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To: Peter Dierks who wrote (53796)2/22/2007 1:18:26 PM
From: tech101  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
I was saying in 5 years, the there won't be disk installed in NEW MOBILE devices - here is my estimation with milestone:

1. Cell phone, PDA, digital camera - no disk installed.
2. MP3 and video players - transition largely completed and few disks still remain.
3. GPS - most use flash, but few disks still remain.
4. Camcorder - transition has already started. No more disk and tape in five years.
5. Portable notebook - will start to appear soon, but disk may linger longer than 5 years.

I am quite positive that 2, 3, 4 will be completed in 5 years because reliability, lightweight and reducing power consumption are critical to these devices. In addition, they can always transfer the data to a permanent storage after the trip.

Imagine that we could have a cell phone or PDA like device in 5 years with 100 GB flash memory that is a cellphone, PDA/notebook, mp3/video player with thousand hours music or movies, and a GPS with millions POIs and all travel related information installed - priced under $500.