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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (220494)	2/23/2007 6:17:06 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 281500

Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion II: Return of the Science Filed under: Ouch, I strained my Andromeda mike @ 1:54 pm Our first post on Crichton's new novel "State of Fear" hits most of the key points, though there are a few more errors in the book that we hope to expand upon in future posts. But for those of you uninterested in buying and reading the book, you can actually find a similar-minded opinion piece by Crichton criticizing climate science (and everything from SETI and the "Drake Equation" to Carl Sagan in the process) here in the public domain. Among other odd comments in the piece, is this one (italics added for emphasis): No longer are models judged by how well they reproduce data from the real world-increasingly, models provide the data. As if they were themselves a reality Crichton should know that this assertion is false. He cites in the 'bibliography' at the end of his book, the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But he appears unaware, for example, of the 54 page chapter (chapter "8") in that report on "Model Evaluation", which describes in detail how observed data are used to evaluate the performance of climate models. He also appears unaware of the 44 page chapter (chapter "12") on "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes" which describes in detail how model-predicted changes are explicitly compared to the actual climate observations in determining the extent to which human influence on climate can be established. Finally, he appears unaware of the 56 page chapter (chapter "10") on "Regional Climate Information - Evaluation and Projections" evaluating the success of model-based regional climate predictions as measured against actual instrumental data. Crichton then goes on to make the classic error of confusing "weather" and "climate": Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? As we in this line of research are fond of pointing out to students in our introductory classes, "Climate is what you expect; Weather is what you get". Crichton would have been well served if he had read this tutorial on the distinction between the two, or perhaps this one and especially, this one. And finally, we get this complaint from Crichton: Certainly the increased use of computer models, such as GCMs, cries out for the separation of those who make the models from those who verify them which we again find puzzling. Again, if Crichton has read the IPCC report, he should be aware of the fact that largely (though admittedly, not completely) independent communities of scientists are involved with (1) the processing and evaluation of empirical climate data (see the list of authors of chapter 2 on "Observed Climate Variability and Change", (2) model-based projections of future climate change (see the list of authors of chapter 9 on "Projections of Future Climate Change", and (3) the comparisons of model predictions against observations (see the list of authors of chapters 8,10, and 12 discussed above). Broadly distinct communities of scientists specialize in processing and analyzing observational climate data, constructing and running climate models, and developing and applying methods for statistically comparing observed and modeled attributes of the climate. We find it disappointing that a prominent individual such as Crichton did not take greater care in acquainting himself with all of the facts before making such rather inflammatory public pronouncements as those detailed above realclimate.org

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (220494)	2/23/2007 3:46:52 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

these lyrics always piss me off. If you get to listen to, dylan is in great voice but its like listening to chalk on a blacboard and it really has a way of bringing rubens suffering to the listener along with the anger. Back in the 60s we routinely got hassled by jersey cops as us long hairs drove to chicago sometimes with some grass in our beat up driving machines. For black folks it was that experience X 10 i am sure. Some powerful language in this song about racism and police brutality. The legacy of police brutality is why race hucksters like al sharpton still have traction. Must reading for african-holocaust deniers if you get my take. It sucked big time back then and the playing field is still not level. And the race hucksters feed on this shit. Rat, you know bobby is telling the truth on this record, and i am doing some accurate extapolation. BOB DYLAN LYRICS "Hurricane" Pistols shots ring out in the barroom night Enter Patty Valentine from the upper hall She sees the bartender in a pool of blood Cries out "My God they killed them all" Here comes the story of the Hurricane The man the authorities came to blame For something that he never done Put him in a prison cell but one time he could-a been The champion of the world. Three bodies lying there does Patty see And another man named Bello moving around mysteriously "I didn't do it" he says and he throws up his hands "I was only robbing the register I hope you understand I saw them leaving" he says and he stops "One of us had better call up the cops" And so Patty calls the cops And they arrive on the scene with their red lights flashing In the hot New Jersey night. Meanwhile far away in another part of town Rubin Carter and a couple of friends are driving around Number one contender for the middleweight crown Had no idea what kinda shit was about to go down When a cop pulled him over to the side of the road Just like the time before and the time before that In Patterson that's just the way things go If you're black you might as well not shown up on the street 'Less you wanna draw the heat. Alfred Bello had a partner and he had a rap for the corps Him and Arthur Dexter Bradley were just out prowling around He said "I saw two men running out they looked like middleweights They jumped into a white car with out-of-state plates" And Miss Patty Valentine just nodded her head Cop said "Wait a minute boys this one's not dead" So they took him to the infirmary And though this man could hardly see They told him that he could identify the guilty men. Four in the morning and they haul Rubin in Take him to the hospital and they bring him upstairs The wounded man looks up through his one dying eye Says "Wha'd you bring him in here for ? He ain't the guy !" Yes here comes the story of the Hurricane The man the authorities came to blame For something that he never done Put in a prison cell but one time he could-a been The champion of the world. Four months later the ghettos are in flame Rubin's in South America fighting for his name While Arthur Dexter Bradley's still in the robbery game And the cops are putting the screws to him looking for somebody to blame "Remember that murder that happened in a bar ?" "Remember you said you saw the getaway car?" "You think you'd like to play ball with the law ?" "Think it might-a been that fighter you saw running that night ?" "Don't forget that you are white". Arthur Dexter Bradley said "I'm really not sure" Cops said "A boy like you could use a break We got you for the motel job and we're talking to your friend Bello Now you don't wanta have to go back to jail be a nice fellow You'll be doing society a favor That sonofabitch is brave and getting braver We want to put his ass in stir We want to pin this triple murder on him He ain't no Gentleman Jim". Rubin could take a man out with just one punch But he never did like to talk about it all that much It's my work he'd say and I do it for pay And when it's over I'd just as soon go on my way Up to some paradise Where the trout streams flow and the air is nice And ride a horse along a trail But then they took him to the jailhouse Where they try to turn a man into a mouse. All of Rubin's cards were marked in advance The trial was a pig-circus he never had a chance The judge made Rubin's witnesses drunkards from the slums To the white folks who watched he was a revolutionary bum And to the black folks he was just a crazy nigger No one doubted that he pulled the trigger And though they could not produce the gun The DA said he was the one who did the deed And the all-white jury agreed. Rubin Carter was falsely tried The crime was murder 'one' guess who testified Bello and Bradley and they both baldly lied And the newspapers they all went along for the ride How can the life of such a man Be in the palm of some fool's hand ? To see him obviously framed Couldn't help but make me feel ashamed to live in a land Where justice is a game. Now all the criminals in their coats and their ties Are free to drink martinis and watch the sun rise While Rubin sits like Buddha in a ten-foot cell An innocent man in a living hell That's the story of the Hurricane But it won't be over till they clear his name And give him back the time he's done Put him in a prison cell but one time he could-a been The champion of the world.