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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (74659)	2/26/2007 2:34:52 PM
From: Skywatcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

msnbc.msn.com

To: William H Huebl who wrote (74659)	2/27/2007 4:30:12 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Well-well.... Bernie Schaeffer could as well be right - the Fed is not waiting for subprime mortgage disaster - they are printing again. That's definitely NOT unexpected. -g- Can they create something out of nothing forever? Well, John Law tried that in the past, and that paper got devalued. So will the dollar. The choice of the BK endgame is in the hands of the Fed, and is really between letting the dollar fall hard or allowing a deep depression. Unfortunately, I believe due to short-term policies pursued, the ultimate endgame will involve BOTH - the dollar will fall hard, and so will the assets in real terms. Inflation will skyrocket. That's Argentina/Brazil crisis scenario. The blame should be put on the Fed, whose bailout policies (save the Wall Street buddies no matter what) have induced unprecedented level of speculation in credit market OTC derivatives, which are tied directly to interest rates set by the Fed. On the other hand, much lower dollar will definitely move US manufacturing back from China, that's a positive -ng- The dollar broke the uptrend, and headed down to test that 80 level again. It will probably bounce, as I'm sure the Fed will float the "inflation fighter" speech as soon as it gets there. Doesn't matter the M3 that is gone in 2006 is growing at 12%... Inflation fighters they are. -g- It's not gonna work forever, BKs have not been outlawed just yet. -g- But, full speed ahead for now. We'll see these markets recover soon, as the printing press is working again. Then again, the credit market is huge, and the subprime disaster is spreading. The BBB traunches are trading as low as 67; with a face of 100. Can these 1bln. coupon passes support the 300 Trillion financial pyramid forever? I think not. The credit market is a lot bigger than the Fed. Or, to put it another way, the unfolding disaster in the credit market will require a lot more effort from the Fed's printing press. On the other hand, if the Fed starts producing all the cash required by the credit market disaster, it will likely spook the dollar (bag) holders. That will be the point when we arrive to the endgame/BK Operation Date: 02/26/2007 Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time: 10:30 AM Close Time: 11:00 AM Settlement Date: 02/27/2007 Maturity/Call Date Range: 11/30/2007 - 06/30/2008 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $1,878 Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $10,809