Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broward Horne who wrote (79336)	2/26/2007 3:43:47 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 110194

Why the heck isn't anybody talking about the ABX numbers? As near as I can tell, they're pricing a 30% loss in the subprime loans. If so, then the implication is a failure rate in the 50%+ range, I'm assuming that a defaulted loan doesn't go to zero but retains at least 50% of its value. Am I missing something here? Assuming hat the property goes into foreclosure and is sold, some or all of the principal will be recaptured depending on the market.

To: Broward Horne who wrote (79336)	2/26/2007 3:44:12 PM
From: pogohere	Respond to of 110194

You have to wonder if LongIslandGuy's self-validation is signalling a market top. :) My take as well: Message 23309654

To: Broward Horne who wrote (79336)	2/27/2007 9:14:16 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Why the heck isn't anybody talking about the ABX numbers? they sure are talking about them where i am reading. Grant has been talking about it for months. remember that the ABX index which is really tanking is ABX.HE.BBB-, 2006-02 vintage. it is not like the entire credit market is falling apart yet. the rest of the credit market is pretty blissfully unaware, corporate spreads (Baa) are at decade lows, as shown in the latest ContraryInvestor. only a few chinks yet in the ABX.HE.AAA Am I missing something here? i don't know whether the 50% failure rate is accurate, but you're right that the subprime index is looking very bad as multiple lenders are now going BK and the others are upping their standards. i just think the market is not very concerned yet and will only be concerned when it is too late. source for quotes: eurobondonline.com