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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - with a K who wrote (11314)	2/27/2007 7:27:01 AM
From: chowder	Respond to of 13449

>>> I'm up about 14% YTD. <<< Good job. I was up over 40% last year and the year before. I'm up 16% YTD. So far, so good! dabum

To: - with a K who wrote (11314)	3/7/2007 1:57:24 PM
From: - with a K	Respond to of 13449

More trouble in the uranium supply market lead me to repurchase UUU.V that I sold last week. Also added to URE.TO and started position in STM.V. Still hold URZ. The catalyst was force majeure news from ERA, the 3rd largest uranium producer in the world. ERA produces half of Australia's total output. March 7, 2007 By Julie Ickes Energy Resources of Australia Declares Force Majeure on Uranium Contracts First Quarter Production: 20 – 30 Percent Down First, there was Cameco’s Cigar Lake uranium mining flooding in Saskatchewan, which took away anticipated uranium mining production from utilities. Now, Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) has declared force majeure on its uranium sales contracts – as per a company news release issued by the company. ERA also announced that first quarter production would fall by 20 to 30 percent below first quarter 2006 production. Annual production for the Ranger operation was down the past year. The company is still assessing the impact of the water level in the pit. The company did announce, “…production will be impacted in the second half of 2007.” Heavy rainfall, during February through March 4th, had forced the company to cease mining operations on February 27th. Mining operations started today and the processing plant is expected to restart next week. ERA’s Ranger mining operation has received 1,600 milliliters of rain, thus far, in 2007. In a recent 72-hour period, the area was hit with 750 milliliters of rain. Widespread flooding has restricted access to and from the Ranger mine. The currently tight uranium market may have suddenly taken a turn for the worse. Mining production at the world’s top mines was down by 10 percent in 2006. Over the past twelve months, the price of uranium has more than doubled and continues to show momentum in its price climb. ERA’s force majeure could likely panic those utilities, which have been holding out for lower prices. We remain bullish on the uranium price, the new wave of uranium producers and the near-term uranium producers – those with projects going into mining production by 2010. ****************** From: Bituman 2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 8899 Short term this ERA development could have a bigger impact on the uranium market than Cigar Lake...as this effects current supply, not future supply. The fact ERA declared force majeure on its uranium sales contracts means someone is not going to take delivery of a substantial amount of uranium. Their only recourse is to bid on upcoming supply...making a tight market...well, that much tighter. To my knowledge the Cigar Lake incident has not caused Cameco to invoke force majeure...yet. ******************* From: Bituman 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 8899 SMH, this is the catalyst that moves U308 to $100...in a hurry. ERA is responsible for 11% of GLOBAL production (100MM lbs) In an instant the market is without 3-4MM lbs of annual yellowcake This is a terrible development for utilities...and good news for anyone holding uranium shares. ************** Force majeure (French for "greater force") is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees one or both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as war, strike, riot, crime, act of God (e.g., flood, earthquake, volcano), prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract. However, Force Majeure is not intended to excuse negligence or other malfeasance of a party, as where non-performance is caused by the usual and natural consequences of external forces (e.g., predicted rain stops an outdoor event), or where the intervening circumstances are specifically contemplated.