To: Ron who wrote (100939 ) 3/1/2007 4:58:58 PM From: stockman_scott Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 362386 Return of U.S. Stock Volatility Welcomed by Traders (Update4) By Nick Baker Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The rout in U.S. stocks yesterday may be good news after all as an index that measures expected market swings rose by the most ever. ``Non-volatile, docile markets are really hard,'' said Robert Doll, chief investment officer of global equities at BlackRock Inc., which manages $1.1 trillion in New York. ``You like to buy things down and sell things up. If you don't get a volatile market, you don't get that swing.'' The Chicago Board Options Exchange's SPX Volatility Index, or VIX, yesterday jumped a record 64 percent to 18.31 as U.S. stocks had their biggest decline in four years. The VIX index fell to a 13-year low in December and has declined every year since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tumbled 3.3 percent yesterday, hadn't fallen more than 2 percent in any single session since May 2003. That was the longest such streak in more than a century, according to Birinyi Associates Inc., a Westport, Connecticut, research and investment firm. The S&P 500 yesterday gave up its February gain after rising for a ninth straight month. As U.S. stocks rallied, the volatility index dropped in December to 9.39. ``We found it tougher to find new ideas over the past year,'' said Patrick Becker Jr., who oversees $2.5 billion at Becker Capital Management in Portland, Oregon. ``I'd walk in to the office and say, `What's going on?' And they would say, `Nothing's really moving.''' Today, the Dow average rose 0.4 percent to 12,268.63. The VIX retreated 16 percent to 15.42. `Great Opportunity' Yesterday's stock market drop ``creates a great opportunity,'' Becker said. ``We can now sift through the wreckage and see what we have.'' Spikes in the VIX have coincided with equity-market declines. The index has come within 2 points of 50 on three occasions in the past decade. The first, on Oct. 8, 1998, came as losses mounted from Russia defaulting on its debt. The VIX reached another peak 10 days after the terrorist attacks in September 2001, and again surged in July 2002 as fallout from Enron Corp.'s collapse drove down shares of its main lenders and former rivals. ``We rarely get a correction like this and go right back up,'' said Doll, referring to yesterday's stock-market drop. ``We're going to bounce around and probably probe lower.'' Optimism Slides A survey published this week showed enthusiasm for stocks may be waning. The UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism dropped to 90 this month from 103 in January, the biggest retreat in 10 months. The growing pessimism contrasts with the predictions of Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News. All 15 expect stocks to rise this year, with an average year-end prediction for the S&P 500 of 1549. The index closed yesterday at 1399. Investors such as Terri Campbell, who helps manage $1.6 billion at Eastern Investment Advisors in Boston, have been biding their time until volatility returned. Campbell began building up her cash reserve in November to prepare for a slump in stocks. The drop yesterday is a ``bit of a relief, because pressures have been building for a while,'' she said. ``We've been waiting for it to happen.'' To contact the reporter on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: February 28, 2007 16:27 EST