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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (80827)	3/2/2007 4:03:05 PM
From: DaveAu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

"How the currency of a country with large budget and trade surpluses, energy independence and enormous reserves can ever decline against the currency of the world's biggest spendthrift is a puzzle to me." I don't know why you'd think a budget surplus would matter but as for the current account, you might want to check this out: news.yahoo.com Canada's current account surplus shrank unexpectedly to a three-year low of C$2.99 billion ($2.56 billion) in the fourth quarter as foreign investors took record profits, offsetting a surge in exports, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. ADVERTISEMENT The surplus was half that expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. They had forecast, on average, an increase to C$6.20 billion from C$5.76 billion in the third quarter. Statscan revised the third-quarter surplus up from C$5.09 billion previously. A second Statscan report on January producer prices and raw materials prices also disappointed on the low side. Factory prices fell 0.1 percent in the month and raw materials prices came down 3.1 percent. For the current account surplus, which hit a record high in 2005, analysts see further weakening in 2007. But they said the composition of the surplus would be the opposite of the fourth quarter, with the goods surplus declining and the deficit in investment flows getting smaller. "I do think that this is probably not representative of what the Canadian current account will be in the next few quarters. It's probably the reverse," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank of Canada. "And for 2007 as a whole, the current account surplus will be quite a bit smaller than 2006," he said. Profits on foreign direct investment in Canada surpassed profits on Canadian investments abroad for a deficit on investment income of C$5.7 billion in the October-December period. In the third quarter, the investment income deficit had narrowed to its lowest mark in 30 years. The investment component of the current account is difficult to predict and can be volatile from quarter to quarter. "This may have been a surprise for this particular quarter. What we've generally seen is a narrowing trend lately and that was a positive development for Canada," said Carolyn Kwan, senior economist at Scotia Capital. A resurgence in auto exports after three straight quarterly declines tempered the drop in the surplus, pushing the overall goods surplus up by C$1.7 billion. The 2006 surplus totaled C$24.3 billion, down from a record high of C$31.80 billion in 2005. In one of the first economic reports for 2007, Statscan said a 1.3-percent jump in motor vehicle prices helped soften the slide in January producer prices caused by petroleum and coal product prices falling 3.8 percent and primary metal products decreasing 1.5 percent. Excluding the effect of the Canadian dollar's decline against the U.S. dollar in January, manufacturers' prices would have declined 0.6 percent.

To: upanddown who wrote (80827)	3/2/2007 8:15:27 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206131

<< Anyone else growing weary of Canadian energy investing? $62 oil and $7.20 gas and it is like the end of the world in Toronto. >> Huh? Are you thinking US energy stocks were up this week? ExxonMobil Corp. down 6.9% for the week, shares negative year-to-date.......XOI down 4.9% from last Friday's finish......OSX losing 3.1% over the week. <<I thought the loonie was at least turning upward after a five-month decline against the buck but now it has again declined every day this week. How the currency of a country with large budget and trade surpluses, energy independence and enormous reserves can ever decline against the currency of the world's biggest spendthrift is a puzzle to me. >> The loonie is an oil/mining/commodity currency.... another is the Australian dollar. Markets are freaked out about a US (or worldwide) slowdown so bail out of oil and mining stocks, and commodity currencies. Both currencies were down this week, as expected. << If Canada can't figure out how fortunate they are, it might be time to move on. >> Certainly we're fortunate in Canada to have a government that spends less than it taxes. Nothing wrong with Canada or Canadian energy stocks. Maybe there's a buying opportunity coming soon..... move on if you like.

To: upanddown who wrote (80827)	3/2/2007 9:47:27 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206131

John the loonie is not only effected by energy.. Ontario is still the engine of Canada and it needs manufacturing, services and tourism... 80% of our trade is with you guys.. A higher loonie kills us.. we are not Arabia. The loonie is not really a Petro currency.. Our lumber is still penalised... under 'free trade' so how can we afford a much higher loonie.. There are other tariffs.. Now of course if the USD craters then the loonie should rise ... right ? Then how do we trade with you guys anything but raw materials... If we had 80% trade with Asia instead.... yeah the loonie could rise against the USD ... You guys would pay through the nose but you guys with Canadian investments would win.. When I was 17 maybe 18 and had a chevy with a 350/4 gas was maybe .30 ?? .40 cents a gallon.. bike was no good in the winter :o)(yeah we had 160oz imperial gallons back then) and the Cannabuck (no loonie then) broke par.. I recall it was 1.02 when I drove down to the Pyramid mall in Plattsburgh to buy a car stereo, installed it in the mall parking lot.. Right it was 75.. I saw Springsteen in Place des Arts, Montreal, small venue.. before he really broke out and The Boss became a familiar term.. I don't think par is coming... it's too painful for us.. I think .85-.88 is the sweetspot.. Around .88 the whining becomes deafening.. Don't let those trade surplus fool you.. Toronto area is painfully broke.. Our transit is crap.. Infrastructure ? All wrong.. Social services have been downloaded to the city.. A lot of that budget surplus was achieved by raping the provinces and municipalities.. You don't think our politicians are smarter than yours do you ? Sure PO helps but it's not enough :o) parr schmarr... Al Edit... not meant to whine about lumber.. that's really just a small thing compared to the Ontario manufacturing and service sector being impacted by a high loonie