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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (7913)	3/3/2007 3:16:33 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 12245

Mary, it's certainly not luck. But it might be. Mq's monkey theory of investing is that if you take 10,000,000 monkeys and ask them to select a buy or sell button at market tops and bottoms, after 1 trade, half of them are right. 2 trades, 2.5 million were right both times. 3 trades = 1.25 million are feeling good about their bets. 4 trades = 600,000 are still swanky and starting to think about buying a new car. 5 trades = 300,000 are up with the play. 6 trades = 150,000. 10 trades = there are about 9,000 monkeys thinking they should start a hedge fund, moving into flash houses, taking on some debt to leverage their talents, getting a new girlfriend. After 20 trades, 9 are still hanging in there. Right every time. Buying at market tops and bottoms gets one a doubling in stock. If they start with a stake of $1,000 and do 20 doublings they get $1 billion [less brokerage and trading taxes]. If they start with $10,000 which many people could rustle up, they could have $10 billion. That's while being a monkey. If they also do have some good ideas, such as "buy sheep, sell deer, put the right people in charge, wear togs when the tide's going out" they can be like The Great Warren Buffett. Or, Mqurice the Amazing. Luck covers a multitude of sins and ignorance. Mqurice PS: A market top is defined as: an all-time high for a market or stock which is 20% higher than the same time as a year ago. A market bottom is defined as: there hasn't been a lower price in the last 3 years. In 50 years of investing, one could do 20 trades at tops and bottoms defined like that. Now that I think of it, that's an excellent investment strategy, which I will license to you for a 10% royalty. Just to be clear, you BUY at the bottom and SELL at the top. You don't be the monkey which does the reverse.