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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: chowder who wrote (11469)3/8/2007 9:48:44 PM
From: vireya  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13449
 
But why didnt you enter when the 20 crossed the 40?



To: chowder who wrote (11469)3/11/2007 5:24:53 PM
From: - with a K  Respond to of 13449
 
Dabum, I joined you in GMRK. Thanks for the idea.

I like the funamentals on this one. Healthy margins, robust ROE, good valuations, small debt, cash flow positive. Nice earnings surprises last 2 quarters, rising estimates.

Company: GMRK
Date: 3/10/07
Next year's expected earnings: $4.46
EPS growth rate used for estimate: 10%
Multiple Graham used for estimate: 8.5
Graham Fair Value: $89.49
Current Price: $41.67
$ difference: $47.82
Percent Growth to Fair Value: 114.75%

Geographically diverse outside the US:

The majority of our operations are conducted in the North Sea, with the balance in offshore Southeast Asia, Brazil and West Africa. As of January 1, 2007 our fleet included 59 offshore supply vessels in various markets throughout the world; 36 in the North Sea; 12 in Southeast Asia; 4 in Brazil; 2 in the Mediterranean Sea; 2 offshore Mexico; 2 in India; and 1 in West Africa.


Strong outlook, executing well:

Bruce Streeter, President and CEO of the Company commented: "The year 2006 exceeded our expectations from the outset and continued throughout the year. Our results for the fourth quarter were bolstered by demand and day rates which carried over from the strong summer and fall periods in the North Sea and steady demand in our other markets. The addition of the two new vessels in Southeast Asia continues to add to our capabilities to meet the growing demands of our customers in that region. We have set a number of records from both an earnings and operating perspective which will serve as a foundation for the years to come. As a result, our balance sheet is the strongest in our history and will allow us to take advantage of growth opportunities as and when they occur.

As we look to 2007 and beyond, our overall contract cover continues to remain strong with our contract cover for 2007 and 2008 approximately 70% and 42%, respectively. This will help provide earnings stability and create a strong cash flow as we continue on our new build program. The new build program reflects a disciplined approach to matching our equipment to our customers' needs, increases asset value and enhances our earnings potential. In 2007, four of our nine new build vessels are scheduled to be delivered. Two of the new design PSV's in the North Sea are due to be delivered at the end of the first and fourth quarters. Toward the end of the third quarter, we anticipate delivery in Southeast Asia of the Sea Supporter while the first of the as yet unnamed AHTS's being built in Singapore is anticipated to be delivered during the fourth quarter. We expect demand for vessel services to remain strong throughout all of our markets during 2007 and believe that our strategy of both growing and replacing our fleet with vessels suited to a variety of support applications is the prudent way to continue to build shareholder value in the long term."


The weekly chart really shows the huge volume you were talking about:




To: chowder who wrote (11469)4/3/2007 12:33:11 AM
From: chowder  Respond to of 13449
 
Re: GMRK ... On 3/8 I presented a buy set up for GMRK. (This message is linked to that analysis.)

>>> Entry $40.92. Profit targets $4.00 - $10.00. Initial stop loss $36.00. <<<

Today price achieved the first profit target of $4.00 per share. At the time, price movement was very strong and I let the trade run a little longer, as I mentioned in an earlier message today. Instead of selling part of my position at the $4.00 profit target, I waited until price showed a $5.00 per share profit and then I sold 1/2 of my position for a 12.2% profit.

I am now moving my stop up to the entry price of $40.92 to insure this winning trade does not turn into a losing position on the remaining 1/2 position.

The important thing to note about the initial set up is that the entry was made when price broke out to an all time high, on huge volume! If the break out is not accompanied by huge volume, it is a weak set up and one would want to be quick with the trigger finger on a price consolidation. As it was, the huge volume confirmed professional money was supporting the break out. That usually means price is going higher.

A price break out into BLUE SKY territory means there isn't a single share owner of GMRK that was holding a losing position at that point. NOT A SINGLE SHARE OWNER! Everybody was holding a winning hand. At this point, there is no overhead supply waiting to come to market.

BLUE SKY break outs are demand driven. Once the short term traders take their profits on the break out, price will usually head higher as professional money is driving demand while the novice trader watches price take off without him.

Since BLUE SKY break outs are demand driven, and because there is no overhead supply to put downside pressure on price, this is where we see those explosive upside price moves in a short period of time.




To: chowder who wrote (11469)5/2/2007 9:54:44 PM
From: chowder  Respond to of 13449
 
Re: GMRK ... On 3/8 I presented a buy set up for GMRK. (This message is linked to the original analysis.)

>>> Entry $40.92. Profit targets $4.00 - $10.00. Initial stop loss $36.00. <<<

I had already taken profits on 1/2 of the position at the first profit target of $4.00 per share, or up 12.2%.

Today price achieved the second profit target of $10.00 per share, but I'm holding on. Price is in a nice uptrend on above average volume and I will allow this trade a little room to see if it can continue higher.

I am moving the stop up to $45.00.




To: chowder who wrote (11469)5/22/2007 11:08:55 AM
From: chowder  Respond to of 13449
 
Re: GMRK ... On 3/8 I presented an intermediate to long term buy set up on GMRK. (This message is linked to that analysis.)

>>> Entry $40.92. Profit targets $4.00 - $10.00. Initial stop loss $36.00. <<<

I had already posted a message showing I sold 1/2 of my position at the first profit target of $4.00 per share, or up 12.2%.

The second profit target of $10.00 per share has been achieved, but I am still in the trade. Up 31% at this point in time.

I am keeping the stop at $44.00.