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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jaker who wrote (4385)	3/8/2007 10:12:06 PM
From: Quasi2	Respond to of 6865

RE: .. the odds may be in your favor..... . Hi Jaker, I think we agree. When I look at the major index's there was a critical event which caused major technical damage to the charts. (daily and weekly charts). This will take some time to correct, we all expected a retrace after last Tuesday and that is whats happening. Or trying to happen right now but I don't see alot of conviction on the part of the Bulls. Looks a little more like the gorillas sucking in the retail investors, & bottom fishers and feeding them shares. I feel there is a "line in the sand" at the mid point of the first big red candle. Well the last couple of days we stalled at the FIB 23.6% level, today the high so far is stalling right around the 38.2% level. In order to just get up to the mid point of the big red candle we will need to get into the 50% to 62.8% retrace range. There is a lot of overhead resistance and I think very huge resistance to set new highs on the major index's for quite some time. For me last Tuesday really showed how fragile this house of cards really is, at this point. Now the talking heads at CNBC will tell you all is well and the correction is over and we are well on out way to new highs very shortly. I'm not in that camp at this point. The other short term problem is many indicators are oversold at this point, RSI, Stoch's etc so the bottom fishers still have some life / hope left in them, I think. I think jobs will have an affect tomorrow, probably down, but I don't think we will break the current low for another few days, maybe a week. I think we would see another bounce at the low then slop around for a while. I would like to see the Bulls take it up solidly to the 38% retrace level maybe a little above, then close below. Then the big Kabang starts and takes us down to new lows on heavy volume with a close at the low. Now that would get things moving and a new trend could be confirmed. I'm not a day trader, so what I don't want is to just slop around hear going sideways, consolidate for months then have the Bulls build another run thru the highs on a shaky base. Now that this thing has started we need a real good wash out on some sustained high volume. JMHO and subject to change without notice Quasi stockcharts.com stockcharts.com stockcharts.com EOM