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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60860)	3/9/2007 11:37:05 AM
From: BDAZZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196952

>>But it will be a LOT of fun to see them put all that aside when they decide to abandon CDMA and other QUALCOMM intellectual property in another month. << The more I think about this the more I can not see this happening. I just don't think they are serious with any of this. Only a fool changes a winning game plan. Putting their position in jeopardy by assuming a new business plan of "We think you're charging too much for this product so we're just gonna steal it", not to mention that going to the EC with their kind of stats and complaining that they want more from the trough is just too ridiculous. I can't help but think that Nokia will play this to the last minute on the outside chance that QCOM will blink a little, and then extend. To this date they have nothing to lose. After April they have a great deal to lose.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60860)	3/9/2007 2:22:37 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196952

What is Toast? Toaster King, Your Majesty, << Nokia is doing much better than I expected as CDMA has gained ground and GSM obsolescence continues apace. >> VW-40 is gaining ground, although not as fast as most would like, or as many expected (and that includes Nokia and Ericsson who sponsored it in ETSI as the candidate for thr UMTS access mode in the pre-3GPP era). CDMA, otoh, is losing ground in proportional infra sales, in proportional handset sales, in proportional subscriber connections, by any metric you can apply, from their peak several years ago. As obsolete as continuously evolving GSM may or may not be, it is more than holding its own. At the beginning of last year Dell'Oro forecast that the WCDMA infra spend in 2006 would for the first time surpass the GSM infra spend. That didn't happen, and it may not happen in 2007. Sensible estimates of when 'cdma' subscriber equipment (SE) unit sales -- i.e. sales of CDMA2000 + UMTS (WCDMA and TD-CDMA HCR and LCR) SE -- will pass GSM SE unit sales, continue to move out and it now appears that may not happen in this decade, and at the earliest won't happen until 2010. Perhaps it is simply a colossal example of sandbagging -- and hopefully it is -- but in a year when mobile device unit sell-in is likely to approach 1.2 billion units, and most research houses and OEMs are again conservatively forecasting 10% to 12% mobile SE unit growth, QUALCOMM is forecasting that CDMA SE sell-in (which includes CDMA WiLL, telematics, security devices, etc. as well as mobile CDMA 'handsets') will increase 2.5% from their estimate of 198m units in 2006 to 203 million units in 2007 ... tinyurl.com As an exercise, and even though it isn't strictly apples to apples, I plotted QUALCOMM's estimates of CDMA 'device' sell-in against Strategy Analytics estimates of global handset sell-in and calculated CDMA technology unit share to track the CDMA share decline which while not dramatic is definitely in decline none the less ... 2003 2004 2005 2006 (E) 2007 (E) ==== ==== ==== ============ =========== Total Sell-in 516m 681Mm 811m 1,019M 'Up to 1.2B' CDMA Sell-in 113M 148M 160M 198M est.¹ 203M est. CDMA Share 21.9% 21.7% 19.7% 19.4%¹ as low as 16.9% ¹ According to Strategy Analytics (SA) in 2006 mobile wireless CDMA handsets constituted 16.9% (~173 million) of total 2006 sell-in while they evidently saw GSM/3GSM handset sell-in of 821 million units or 80.7% of total sell-in with the small remainder iDEN and PDC and perhaps a few AMPS/NMT, or TDMA handsets. For those that care to indulge crystal ball gazing, Informa Telecoms & Media gazed into their World Cellular Information database (formerly the EMC Cellular database) and forecasted subscriber connections by technology in 2011 to breakout thus ... GSM 2,600 million 60.5% UMTS 981 million 22.8% CDMA 489 million 11.4% Others 230 million 5.3% ------------- ------ Total 4,300 million 100.0% The good news for you buried in their 5 year forecast is that they see GSM subscriber connections peaking in 2009 at 2.8 Billion subs and ~72% of the subscriber base (with 561 million UMTS, and 475 million CDMA subscriber connections at end of 2009), and declining thereafter. Essentially, as a percentage of the total base they see small GSM growth relatively flat from now until 2009. In 2009 they see total 'cdma' (CDMA + UMTS) subscriber connections as ~26% of the base and 35% in 2011. Will Anita [TM] use a Snapdragon chipset and if so, do you plan to take it commercial in 2008 or 2009? Early market entry could improve 'cdma' growth odds. Cheers, - EriQ -

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60860)	3/9/2007 4:37:18 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196952

A One Question Technology Platform Quiz ... ... based on QUALCOMM's "CDMA and WCDMA (UMTS) Handset¹ Shipments Guidance as of January 24, 2007:" 2003 2004 2005 2006 (E) 2007 (E) ==== ==== ==== ========= =========== WCDMA 4M 22M 50M 98M est. 175M est. CDMA 113M 148M 160M 198M est. 203M est. Total 117M 170M 210M 296M est. 378M est. ¹ Handset shipment estimates are QUALCOMM midpointestimates and include data devices, telematics, security devices and some quantity of channel inventory. tinyurl.com Here is the question: 1. In what month of what year will 3GSM UMTS VW-40 'handset' shipments exceed CDMA handset shipments? There will be no CDMA Toaster awarded to the individual(s) who submit the winning answer. Cheers, - EriQ -