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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (2771)	3/11/2007 12:53:34 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2852

Looks like your analysis has been generally correct so far this year. My only point would be that our financial systems have been shown to work OK during a bull market. They have not been tested for some time during a substantial correction phase. Usually something turns up unexpectedly during those conditions.

To: Moominoid who wrote (2771)	3/12/2007 9:57:51 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2852

When serious - and rational - bears begin to wonder if this time is different... perhaps it's time for bulls to get worried... -g The count looks good. You are right - until and unless last Summer's lows are taken out, it is possible that the decline is no more than a correction of that last leg of the bull market which started in 2002. As far as real life fundamental side is concerned... as you know, I am not an economist. I do think that a potential for confusing and negative events definitely exists. There was - and is - plenty of mischief taking place in the areas of credit. There exist a world of derivatives which may unwind in unexpected ways. "Fast Money" is counting in the trillions, and it is leveraged, and all this creates an unprecedented situation. Also, there is an unpopular war taking place, which is part of larger conflict (which the society, in general, seems reluctant to acknowledge). Energy situation is... vulnerable to negative surprises... etc., etc. And yet, there is nary a cloud up in the sky.