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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crossy who wrote (27348)	3/12/2007 9:26:23 PM
From: fedman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

Crossy: I've been scouring the banking area for companies that may have been adversely hit by the subprime issue (in terms of share price), but are still solid in terms of fundamentals. One difficulty is that the more recent the subprime mortgage was written the worse it is likely to perform because: 1: Credit standards for loan originations were increasingly relaxed in order to remain competitive, especially as the Fed lowered rates, and 2: The housing valuations were closer to the top of the bubble so that the the collateral of the property offers less protection against default. I've got a few loose leads in this area, but nothing too promising. I think I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a few more months and think about things here, but the area really has me interested.

To: Crossy who wrote (27348)	3/12/2007 10:14:26 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

This is as useless an article as Ive read recently. We all know that what happens at the margins is what largly determines pricing. So trying to rationally look at the data- suddenly the subprime market has been confined only to 2004 and 2005? what happened before and after?. Even if you limit the subprime to those years, the relevent question is what is the impact of adding 1 million units to the existing inventory of housing for sale and how that will impact home values,and prices of new construction. That there are 114 million residential units in this country is irrelevent. How will sub prime defaults affect credit for new sub prime borrowers and what will the impact be for first time buyers as well as for people trying to sell their starter homes so they can move up? I am not saying that this will cause a recession only that the article as written makes no sense to me. I would be much more concerned with the oversupply of investor-owned housing and that demand for this product has virtually dried up, the effect of less construction on the economy and the reluctance of financial entities to bet on continued price appreciation. In my area, Western Mass, I am hearing about paper mills closing down, companies coming up with ploys to deny long term workers health benefits by telling them they can no long guaranty them 40 hours work weeks. My area is very dependent upon second home buyers, so far this year the news has not been very good. A friend of mine has had his house on the market for at least 9 months and has had almost no inquiries during that time, let alone offers. I wonder how many people are like my friend who is now carrying two mortgages much longer than he had anticipated. That has to crimp both funds available for consumer goods as well as for investment. I wonder if anyone tracks the number and percentage of contingent residential sales and how those number have been changing. The last three entertainment events I went to were poorly attended. The restaurant I ate at this evening, which I hadnt been to in 3-4 months, used to have a bout 10-12 people dining at the same time we did, there were only 2 others. This is anecdotal but not the sign of a robust U.S. economy and my understanding is that job creation has been disappointing at best.

To: Crossy who wrote (27348)	3/13/2007 1:08:00 AM
From: schadenfreude	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

Froelich is ALWAYS bullish and not just a little. And I think his statistics grossly underestimate the magnitude of the problem. The subprime problem is merely the fuse connected to the enormous housing time bomb that has been characterized by: - unprecedented increases in housing prices in most major markets - unprecedented cash outs - unprecedented easing of lending standards across the board - and unprecedented speculation on a national basis. If go into recession (and it appears that's where were headed), the housing market is going put unprecedented strain on the economy.