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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (73708)	3/12/2007 11:10:42 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

'I just find it interesting that I guy like Crossy appears to agree with Froehlich.' I think many ivory tower types (and that includes many RE professionals<g>) really don't understand real estate or prior RE cycles. And many others equate it with their stock market experiences which is totally ridiculous.. Makes you wonder about all the blanket statements that housing has bottomed propoganda that was thrown out the past six months considering real estate is local.. These cycles usually end up being an 'L' with prices and sales activity dropping for several years with inventory levels and foreclosures rising at the same time. Construction activity falling by 50%+ is the norm Then prices stabilize for a period of several more year, foreclosures drop, inventory stabilizes and sales activity picks up.. Perhaps a decade later prices rise significantly off the bottom and building activity starts really expanding again.. Subprime credit crunch is just a catalyst in the acceleration of the downturn and effects the food chain in every possible way.. Just about anyone who wanted to buy, sell, trade up or down gets impacted in some way from this.. Only those sitting pat in their home the next cycle either mortgage free or with a low fixed rate mortgage they are paying down won't feel it..