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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (328656)	3/13/2007 10:59:18 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575704

I gave over 60 years of data on US military expenditures as a percentage of GDP. I tyoed in 2 years data on American weapons exports, but my link gives at least 8. In any case 2 or even 1 is all that is needed. It doesn't matter what figure you plug in for the previous years. Its mathematically impossible for the growth in American weapons exports from previous decades to 2004 and 2005 to be large enough to make up for the decline in American military spending (in % of GDP) over those years, unless during the cold war we exported a large negative amount of weapons. To make the case for your side of the argument the strongest it could be I assumed zero weapons exports during the cold war. Assuming zero means that 100% of the amount exported in 2004 and 2005 represented growth from the cold war figure. But even then American weapons exports are far too small to support the argument that the military industrial complex is a bigger part of our country. You can't export a "negative weapon". I suppose in theory if most of the US's weapons in the cold war where imported and American industry has since taken over, that the American "military industrial complex" could have grown to be a bigger part of our country, but that simply isn't the case. In no period during or since WWII have American imports of weapons been a very large fraction of American military spending. And during the cold war as a whole the US was a net weapons exporter not an importer. Unless the US relied on weapons imports for a major part of its armament during the cold war (and it did not), and was a net weapons importer (and it wasn't), then the only way that I only provided two years worth of data would be meaningful, is if 2004 and 2005 where unusually low outliers for US military exports, and in 2000-2003 and/or in 2006, we exported vastly more weapons. And by "vastly more", I'm talking dozens of times more. Double or triple wouldn't cut it. As for your 30 years of data. Its stock prices (which aren't a direct measure of military spending. Also its in the stock prices of 7 companies, which don't represent the whole defense industry even now, and certainly didn't in the 70s and earlier. Its 7 companies that represent a much larger share of the defense industry than they did in the past. The industry has greatly consolidated since 1977. Your data is from a period of low stock prices and relatively low military spending. Military spending in the late 70s, was a lower percentage of GDP then at any time from Korea to Clinton. As for stock price growth - Notice how big of increase the DOW has had since 1977 bigcharts.marketwatch.com Also the NASDAQ despite the massive drop a few years back bigcharts.marketwatch.com In short (to late for that<g>) you don't have a leg to stand on.