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To: The Freep who wrote (142371)	3/14/2007 9:44:17 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I use a % stop loss rule implemented each day. The model is really though only too early or too late as such :) I am trying to predict when the stochastics will turn around. I wouldn't suddenly switch to short when the stochs are bottoming out. A mistake is calling the turnaround too soon or two late. The question is does it add value to using a simple rule where you go long or short when the stochs cross over. It definitely does add a lot of value in anticipating turnarounds ahead of time from the backtesting. At the end of today it is still short. It certainly doesn't look good. The current short signal initiated at the close on 3/9/07. Though only one of the model indicators said to go short. At the 3/12/07 close all were short. Now they are all still short. The forward forecast keeps changing too.... and a sharp reversal will change the predictions. I do keep improving it when there are "failures". Recently I developed a new indicator and rule for predicting when the stochs will cross when we are in the overbought or oversold zones. The parameter estimates are also updated each day too.