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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (74969)	3/15/2007 10:24:55 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Yes, but the Fed may not be able to cut much. When they do, they will cause the dollar rout and the carry trade blow-up. The 10-year and 30-year rates could go UP then, NOT down. That's exactly why they are not cutting yet. I don't know what WS is celebrating. I would not bet on BK thanks to their bear routs, but stocks are very risky right now, so I'm just out. I like the safety of treasuries and gold. The next Fed move will be a cut, and soon. I would expect dire consequences down that road, which include 1) Much lower US dollar (I'm in gold for that reason) 2) HIGHER LT rates (I'm in short-term, not LT T-bills for that reason) 3) HIGHER mortgage rates, higher 10-year rates, and all bond rates, except very short term. Defaults will spread to all of mortgage market, and corporate bonds 4) Stocks down, Re down. That's the Risk, thanks to huge trade and budget deficit, and the Fed's policies to prolong and postpone the inevitable by actually promoting the carry trade! The more they promote it, the more dire the consequences of actual foreign outflows will be for the dollar. 1-4 are pretty much guaranteed some time down the road. That's the banquette of consequences.