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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (74984)	3/16/2007 6:27:09 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

On a positive side, the market sell-off has produced a lot of down sentiment, and it did not even come down a lot. -ggg- Earnings yield on SP is still much higher than 10-year yield (the Fed model), which is a picture that's very different from 2000 and 1987. So... unless that comes down, or threatens to do so, or 10-year yield goes up significantly, it may be difficult for the market to sell off a lot from here. We'll have to see how the new earnings and pre-announcements go, and that's soon. If the market proves that it does not want to go down, it will move higher -g- Finally, housing bubble pain is in every magazine. Everyone looks at the housing prices and says WOW. Well, how did corn, oil, or gold do in the same time period? That gives the ballpark of printing and real inflation. The truth is, housing and everything else may still go up as soon as Fed hilos show up. The dollar is another story.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (74984)	3/17/2007 8:55:28 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

It's pretty cheap against the Euro and some other currencies (Pound, Swiss Franc). It can't go down against those in the long-run unless there is more inflation in the US than in those countries. It is close to fair value with the Aussie. On the other hand the Yen is supposedly cheap (hard to believe but that's what they say). The Yuan and other emerging country currencies will likely rise against the dollar in the long-run. Of course Canadian Dollars are very important in the US Dollar Index (and Mexican Pesos). Weighing all this up I'd expect the Dollar to be stable. Personally I treat the USD as cheap and both me and my Mom are and will accumulate money in USDs slowly over time and reduce the weight of the Aussie (me) and Euro/Pound (her).