To: SiouxPal who wrote (102281 ) 3/17/2007 7:51:21 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 361474 Is This "The Surge?"billbradley.pajamasmedia.com By Bill Bradley / March 17, 2007 8:00 AM <<...As he returns to California, is Senator Barack Obama surging in the polls? Obama, who speaks today at a rally in Oakland before a big San Francisco fundraiser tonight, has moved up in a new poll for Time Magazine. Obama trailed Hillary Clinton by 19 points in Time’s January poll. Now the margin is down to 8 points, 34% to 26%. Al Gore is at 13% and John Edwards is at 10%, down a point from last month. Obama is drawing big crowds everywhere, including 20,000 in the rain in Austin, Texas three weeks ago. Crowds don’t mean everything, but they mean something. Especially when coupled with much improved showings against Republicans in general election match-ups. Dick Morris, the one-time intimate advisor of the Clinton’s who in many ways masterminded his presidential recovery in 1995 but is now their professional antagonist, is all over this. To no one’s surprise. Although he earlier said Hillary would be the next president, now he is saying she is collapsing and Obama is surging. Still, he makes some good points. Before going further, a little more perspective. The Time poll is not so much a question of Obama rocketing upwards but of Clinton moving down. Her lead over the freshman Illinois senator in January was 40% to 21%. Now it is 34% to 26%. Take Gore out of it and she leads Obama, 42% to 31%. In addition, other pretty recent national polls don’t show this somewhat dramatic closing. While Obama hasn’t rocketed upwards in the Democratic numbers, he is looking good in the horse race with the Republicans. Rudy Giuliani leads John McCain, 40% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich at 10% and Mitt Romney at 7%. Giuliani leads Clinton by four points, but now trails Obama by one point. Last month, Giuliani had a five-point lead over Obama. Both Democrats have three or four point leads over McCain. Morris notes that Obama has moved up among black voters, aided by Clinton’s decision to attack him and the Clintons’ former friend-turned-major Obama fundraiser, Hollywood billionaire David Geffen after Geffen attacked them in a Maureen Dowd column. He also thinks that Clinton erred by trying to compete with Obama in the anniversary celebration of the great civil rights march in Selma, Alabama. The other area of significant movement for Obama, in addition to black Democrats, is among independent voters. This is why he’s erased Giuliani’s lead of last month. He now leads the former New York mayor and 9/11 icon by 10 points among independents. Clinton trails Giuliani among independents by eight points...>>