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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (7699)	3/17/2007 7:53:20 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

Are there other indicators that could give us clues, as to whether or not the markets are now heading down, in a long smash, that will on the surface be viewed as highly deflationary (on a global basis)? Well we think so. We have for some time been observing the commodity bulls (and perhaps the China and far east bulls). We feel they have been perhaps a bit caught out, yet they seem to be hanging tough. Time will show. But in the interim we continue observing, in particular the HUI, XOI, etc. In an EW sense we also tend to feel the current period is a bit like that of the late 60's and 70's. Perhaps the move down that started in '73 is the most comparable. We show that period here, because we think it is very EW similar. Of course even if there are similarities, it will not be exact, and we expect the prime difference herein is one of time. We expect a move down here, if indeed it has started, to be longer in time, compared to the prior period. The DOW top we note was in '73, and each division is a year. We do not have the % size of the move down, but it was significant. Another view of the LT DOW, in linear format, including the 60's, 70's and 80's. It is also of interest to not what gold did, during the '73 to '75 move down in the general markets, and there after. Make up your own mind, but imo POG followed the general market, and then let everyone know it was going to go up following the DOW bottom. And indeed it did go up. So, perhaps we are just showing some teasers here, w/o showing our HUI EW. We have since the 2006 top had the HUI in a BIG [2] down (shown ~ 11 months ago), and we have seen nothing happen to yet change our mind. It still appears all the pm bulls are in the Big 3rd wave up. We will wait a bit for another HUI update, as we think something has to happen here soon, one way or the other, to determine the outcome once and for all. That being said, we follow this interesting ratio chart, USPIX/HUI. Ratio charts are intriging at times, because there are two variables. We happen to think this ratio chart has latched on a major fib pivot low, and therefore could rocket up. If USPIX rises at the same time the HUI falls, the rise will be dramatic. And finally we will close with CDE. In our opinion CDE has yet to do an impulse up with trend. If the HUI is in a Big 3, and gold/silver are in a powerful move up, one would have to wonder why a silver producer the size of CDE has not yet completed an apparent major EW downtrend, and started a major impulse wave up. Yes one has to wonder. There are other major pm stocks in the same boat as CDE. If the HUI was in a Big 3, we think every pm stock around the globe would be going up, in unison. In short we think there are going to be some unbelievable buys in pm stocks, but a good bit further down the road. The base for a skyscraper is still under construction. The odds seem good for what will be viewed on surface as a global 'deflationary' smash, but in reality it will be the trigger for an 'inflationary' boom of all time. A final thought is that the possibility of a major ME war is not something out of the picture. TF