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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1812)	3/17/2007 8:42:16 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6370

What the NDE 8k does not say is the disturbing trend: The Q4 2006 Alt-A production has a 30-day delinquency of 10.13% (this needs to be compared to the total pool standing at 5.40%). In Q3 the corresponding number was 8.40%. In Q1 when all was well the number was under 3%. Compare that with NDEs own first lien loans (Conforming Loans): In Q4 2006 the total stood at 2.52% essentially flat with the new production and also comparable to 2.62% a full year earlier (Q3 2005). The relative development of Alt-A was indeed worse than subprime (it moved from 23.33 in Q3 2005 to 27.12 in Q4 2006). After all the NDE Alt-A loans are worse than HELOCs (2.03%) and at par with Closed end Seconds (7.82%). One more number is interesting: Of all Alt-A loans only a fraction is serviced for the GSEs (Indymac says so: Only few Alt-A loans can be sold to a GSE). Of 123B total Alt-A, only 22B are serviced for the GSEs.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1812)	3/29/2007 10:08:20 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

More on NDE, Indymac: "There's nothing really new in the data," Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, said. "The data is somewhat misleading on the losses too. They used a five-year time frame. That includes 2002 to 2004 when there were very few losses. People are really worried about 2006." A lot of investors have bet against IndyMac shares through short sales, the analyst noted. "This gets some shorts squeezed out of the stock," Miller said. "The company seems more focused on hyping the stock." IndyMac is still facing other challenges. Loans that the company sold on to other investors last year are experiencing so-called early-payment defaults, when borrowers miss payments during the initial months of the mortgage, he explained. That's forcing IndyMac to buy back some of the loans, he added.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1812)	8/20/2007 10:32:32 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 6370

IMB/NDE 10-Q, per June.30: NPA is now at 1.63% up from 0.49% a year ago. While still not much, it is well ahead and within the range of IMBs estimates (1.50-2.00) by the end of 2007. Their allowance for loan losses compared to non peforming loans is at 36%, vs 91% in 2006. There is a small adverse selection problem: their loans held for investment (and those are whole loans) has a NPA of 2.50% which is much higher than of overall NPA (see above). NPA for loans held for sale is estimated at 2%.