Here's what happens when you do a military intervention correctly!
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A new Serbia
By Deborah Senn
One of the more obscure rules of politics is the law of "unforeseen consequences." A new legislator invariably learns that a bill enacted into law often drifts, in practice, far from the original legislative intent.
On a more global scale, "unforeseen consequences" have ruled the day in Iraq. We did not fully comprehend that beneath Saddam Hussein's tyrannical hold on Iraq lay the explosive hatred between Sunni and Shiite.
Similarly, in the old Yugoslavia — until the fall of the Soviet Union and the death of Yugoslavia's perennial leader, Josip Broz Tito — few understood how much Tito held the forces of Yugoslavia together for much of the 20th century. After his death, those forces were quickly undone. The region fell victim to centuries-old nationalistic hostilities, eventually splintering along religious and ethnic lines into Serbia, Croatia, Kosovo, Slovenia, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
For us in the West, these multiple ethnic divisions are often a blur, and seemingly far away. But history reminds us how the region impacted American lives when, a century ago, the spark that started World War I came from the Balkans: the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Bosnian in Sarajevo.
Today, the ties that bind, some directly to Washington state, are economic. And the story of Serbia in particular is of how a nation can begin to emerge from tyranny, and the allegations of genocide, into the bright light of progress.
The center of the old Yugoslavia was Belgrade, now the capital of Serbia. During the 1990s, the Serbs, historically dominant in many regions of Yugoslavia, fought a losing, decade-long battle led by Slobodan Milosevic to maintain a "greater Serbia." The battles were extended and cruel, and still subject to the war-crimes tribunal in The Hague. (A United Nations high court last month cleared Serbia of genocide charges against Bosnian Muslims but said its former government could have and should have stopped the 1995 killings.)
The Serbia I've come to know has recovered quickly from the bombings, blackouts and economic sanctions endured under the Milosevic regime. It is poised to make a giant leap into the future. Its people have the intellectual skills, determination and know-how to create a prosperous future, as long as their nation can leave behind the nationalism and ethnic divisions of the past. Following national elections earlier this year, the Serbs stand at a crucial crossroads. I believe the country will move forward positively, though perhaps not without an occasional identity crisis.
A stroll through Belgrade — which sits at the confluence of the Danube and Sava rivers — reveals Serbia's present dilemma, shaped by the currents of its recent history.
No longer Tito's Belgrade, the old capital is still stately, if a little shopworn. The image of the former leader himself is now confined to such items as placemats, coasters and the "Tito Cookbook."
The raw material shaping Serbia is the country's cohort of ambitious and well-educated young people. Every night, they are on parade along the pedestrian mall — Knez Mihailova. The mall, adjoining the historic Square of the Republic, bustles with shoppers. On display are big Western names, like Nike, Adidas and Escada. At the end of the mall is the hip Coffee Dream, serving outstanding dark chocolate mocha. In the afternoon, it is packed with students talking energetically about politics and culture.
It is this new Belgrade that in 2006 was designated the "City of the Future in Southern Europe."
But, then, just 30 feet down the block, a huge, three-story poster of the late Milosevic adorns a building; at a short distance, but a world away, remain the targets of the 1999 attack of U.S. and NATO warplanes and cruise missiles that was launched to protect the minority Albanians of the Kosovo region. The collapsed, bombed-out army and police headquarters of the Milosevic regime have been left, frozen in time.
Asked about the years under Milosevic, the U.N. sanctions and the wars of the 1990s, the pain on the faces of the Serbians, a gracious and friendly people, is visible.
There are stories of shortages and hunger. One friend told me he could spend a day trying to fill a milk bottle with gasoline to operate his car.
And while the Clinton name is magic just about anywhere you go in Europe, in Serbia, President Clinton is the man held accountable for the bombings of that country.
Still, the United States is immensely popular among Serbians. And, it was the Serbians, in a remarkable display of people power, who en masse pushed Milosevic from office on Oct. 5, 2000. After his fall, the Serbs quickly went about the business of catching up with the rest of Europe.
Geographically, Serbia lies between Russia and Europe. On the one hand, it looks west, aspiring to be part of the European Union. Its neighbors, Romania and Bulgaria, were granted membership in 2006. Culturally and politically, Serbia faces east, toward Russia, its historic ally.
On the financial front, Washington state notably has played a key role in helping the Serbian economy modernize. The late Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, a popular reformist leader, personally visited Redmond, courted Microsoft and won a coveted prize when Serbia became a center for the development of the Tablet PC and language-handwriting-recognition technologies.
However, in 2003, Djindjic was assassinated by a sniper outside his government headquarters. A Serbian friend told me that it was the "end of hope." But progress resumed. The planned Microsoft center opened in 2005.
Looking ahead, there are two critical, emotional issues from the past that stand between Serbia and its full participation in the European — and global — community.
First is the matter of Kosovo, the breakaway southern province of Serbia. Kosovo is 60 percent ethnic Albanian and 40 percent Serbian. It has been the focal point of conflict in the region and its removal from Serbian hands in 1999 as a United Nations protectorate was widely resented.
A U.N. commission, led by the former president of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari, leans toward an independent Kosovo. But, for many Serbians, this is unacceptable. Current Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has stated his opposition. Russian President Vladimir Putin is backing Kostunica.
The Kosovo issue heated up recently when several U.N. vehicles in the province were bombed. Meanwhile, talks have begun in earnest in Vienna addressing Ahtisaari's U.N. plan. Ahtisaari has expressed optimism about the goodwill of the parties. Clearly, the role of Russia on the U.N. Security Council will be pivotal.
The second issue facing the Serbs serves as a barrier to the country's entry into the European Union. The Hague Tribunal is seeking to prosecute Gen. Ratko Mladic, a Milosevic associate who is wanted for war crimes but still remains at large. It has been reported that Mladic has been hiding in plain sight in an apartment building in Belgrade. Until he is apprehended and brought to justice, it appears Serbia's application to the EU is on hold.
It was in this political atmosphere that Serbia held a crucial new parliamentary election on Jan. 21. One purpose of the election was to approve a new constitution. But, going into the vote, it was unclear whether frustration over economic and geopolitical issues would boost the nationalists and further isolate Serbia from the rest of Europe.
One democratic party leader voiced the fear that there is a "Westernstereotype" of Serbia: "For so many in the West, Serbia remains a black hole of nationalism."
The results of the election were positive, on the one hand, but still revealed the internal struggle that divides Serbia.
The bigger winners were the Western-backed democratic parties, which doubled their seats in Parliament and were given the task of attempting to form a center-left government.
But Serbia's ultra-nationalist Radical Party won almost 30 percent of the votes. Its nationalist ally, the Socialist Party (once Milosevic's power base), won another 6 percent. Yet, this fell well short of a majority, and the nationalists may have reached a high-water mark. The target date for forming a new government is the end of this month.
So stands Serbia, at this moment, in this land of the Balkans. Of two roads before it, I'm convinced it will follow the more progressive one.
Over time, the term "Balkanization" has become synonymous with political and ethnic division and strife.
But the strife of the past decade cannot erase the rich cultural and historic past that leads to the Belgrade of today.
With its well-educated and eager young people, Serbia is on the verge of writing a new chapter in its colorful history — this time as a tolerant, pluralistic country whose capital is the "City of the Future in Southern Europe."
Deborah Senn is an attorney and Washington's former insurance commissioner. She consults on international insurance regulation and was in Serbia recently.
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