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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: andiron who wrote (64684)	3/20/2007 6:41:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Market strength is on very low volume with Program Trading taking bulk of volume and moving it in the direction it wants. This market will NOT crack hard and gush blood until the Grim Reaper kicks through the publics wall of delusion followed by sirens wailing and loudspeakers blasting "Reality is Here Children time too PANIC!!!" Sorry, but as this Bull will not fade away politely, it will, in due course, however, be decapitated--brutal, sudden, stunning. Every poor soul that was burned from 2000 to 2002 have now memorized a mantra "i will not be a jerk and watch my nominal assets go up in smoke again". This market is fighting a plunge to 10% down because the sellers will be caught in a crushing crowd all wanting to sell and sell NOW. Just how overdo are we?? Here is a post of mine from elsewhere. ******************************************************* To: stormrider1 who wrote (127) 3/15/2007 12:59:05 AM From: max90 Read Replies (2) of 202 Some market history<<Cripes, how long has it been since we had a 10% or more correction?>> 4years and 4 months. Now for some history Mike. This is a wow bit of data:) The average time between SPX having a 20% or more correction is every 3.77 years. We are now at just about 4.4 years without a 10% correction on SPX500! The average for a 15% correction or more is 2.23years. And i repeat we are now 4.4 years without EVEN a 10% correction And for a 10% correction 1.44 years. ( we are now 3.4 years OVERDO, now i ask what's up???) i give a possible answer in this post. i concur with others, that though we can not date it, we are going to have the worst market crash in the history of the market. And Mike , seriously, i am not kidding.** Be it 1 years or 2 , even 3 years. Newman has listed several high risk elements in the market place that have NEVER existed before in Market history. Of one of those risks, the derivative market that now is leveraged for more money assets the exist on the whole planet, Newman says it is NOT a question of will a DERIVATIVES disaster will occur, but only as to the when. This is unknown, but i will happen. DERIVATIVES market for one refuse to factor in a Sigma 10 event on the basis they are so rare, not on the basis that they can't happen. A Sigma 10 event would collapse the entire financial world. DERIVATIVES held in the U.S. alone are now well over 100 TRILLION in NOMINAL DOLLARS, i repeat 100 TRILLION DOLLARS. 20 years ago they were virtually non-existent. What is the motivation for this? Greed and only greed, they have zero to do with the actual world economy. This is only money being used to make money. It is all imaginary, this a incredibly dangerous game with what now isn't even paper money, it is now more and more just electronic money. The DERIVATIVES market now rules the stock market. And the derivative market HATES volatility. (PPT now could well be seen as working to protect the DERIVATIVES market---behind closed doors, they KNOW they are playing with financial world catastrophe. (They may be wicked, but they are not dumb) The DERIVATIVES market is one the reason we have gone this astounding 4.4 years. The market is nothing like it was even 10 years ago. People in general have no clue how different it all is now. But it is each passing month a ever increasingly sized huge egg of a "what me worry" Humpty-Dumpty on the Wall Street Wall. And yes when this Humty-Dumpty finally falls all the Central Banks and all the PPTs and Bernanke Helicopters will not be able to put this Market back together again. i don't say when, but it will happen, and it will be shocking; As all things that happen brutal/suddenly without warning always are. Max writes darkly:)