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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (199792)	3/20/2007 2:20:25 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 793858

* Why is Iran's economy broken? Because they've been spending so much money on two things: nuclear enrichment at Natanz... and global jihadism. Iran also subsidizes energy prices domestically in a hugely generous way. It cannot charge market prices or even decrease the subsidies without risking a huge domestic political catfight. In 2000, the subsidies amounted to 16% of Iran's GDP. That is an enormous figure which is probably higher now. Iran imports gasoline, which in 2000 it was selling at appx. .40 per gallon. It has the third cheapest energy prices in the world, yet imports a lot of its gasoline which it presumably buys at market or near-market prices. Smart, huh? Naturally, energy is squandered. Teheran is one of the most polluted cities in the world. But more important, the skewing of the economy by subsidized energy means that there is no way that Iran will ever be able to compete globally in anything except exporting trouble and jihad. Iran is a seriously screwed up country even if you take the MadMullahs and dingbat Mahmoud Ahmadinejad out of the picture. Read the executive summary of this report if you don't have the time to read the entire thing: captus.nu Like all the rest of the Mideast nations cursed with oil, Iran's economy is a shambles. And the cost of jihad, subsidies to Hizbollah, Hamas, nuclearization, etc., cost a lot of money for which Iran does not get back a tangible return. Of course, this makes it even more dangerous, but that is another discussion.

To: LindyBill who wrote (199792)	3/20/2007 2:49:10 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793858

If Iran's current rate of domestic consumption of oil and gas continues on the trend it is on and the decline in its reserves also continues per trend, by 2015 it will be exporting no oil at all. Zero. If the Israelis really want to hurt the Iranians, they can take out the oil installations. That will hurt a lot more than taking out nuclear stuff because they won't be able to pay for anything. And the world I doubt grants them any credit; dealing with them has to on a cash-on-the-barrelhead basis as the Russians are showing us. en.wikipedia.org According to the latest report (26 Dec 2006) by the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (NAS), if the current increase in local Iranian oil consumption continues and the current decline in oil production is not stopped, then by 2015 Iran’s oil export will decline to zero. [2] According to this and other reports Iran needs to invest about $2.5 billion a year just to stand still. No oil sales, no foreign exchange. No forex, no jihad or at least a very curtailed form of it. Influence certainly goes down dramatically. The economic fiasco that is Iran explains a lot of the nuclearization effort. It does need nuclear energy because its oil sector is so incredibly badly managed. By pointing a gun at Iran's nuclear "industry", the West is pointing a gun at the stability of the Islamic Republic because sooner or later, without nuclear energy, the Mad Mullahs will be unable to subsidize cheap energy on which the Iranian people are hooked like a junkie. Take the cheap energy fix away, and chaos will result. Possibly even the overthrow of the MadMullahs. All the anti-Israel biz can be seen in this light. When things are going very badly, create an enemy, a disruptive event to take the focus off your own failings. Get the tail to wag the dog, and if it is Jewish and/or Israeli, so much the better. Follow the money, follow the money.....