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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (224866)	3/21/2007 2:46:57 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 281500

The shiaa will be very happy to have the kurds go their own way I'd agree with that. Turkey may be the only nation interested in absorbing the Kurds. And that only to tone down a potential PKK uprising. But there is some oil in ythe Kurdish areas. western iraq fall to saudi, jordan and syria Saudi already said it will intervene- -although it didn't say how. Those Sunni are a problem for it. The Saudi standard of living took a sharp hit as oil prices plummeted in the 1980's and 1990's and there was fear of unrest in the kingdom. Unemployment was high, the governmental safety net low. They may not be that happy about taking in more brother Muslims without more oil to support them. Where does Syria stand? Probably just wants to pull Uncle Sam's beard. Iran is a different matter. They'd gladly take in those Shia and their oil. And thoses Shia are likely to want to continue to even old grudges against their Sunni "brothers". They've certainly got enough of them. And there you have the makings of a regional conflict. And as RCG said, it could spread because the oil importers have an interest in this too. The US will certainly not be happy to see Iran get all that additional oil. That oil in the south is trouble. And who gets to kill who in Baghdad is going to be a VERY hot issue.