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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LarsA who wrote (61228)	3/21/2007 10:43:18 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196962

I would prefer if the next license had a provision for actual usage of the somewhat faster up- and download features of HDR. If, by checking with say Telcos, it turns out that up- and downloading is not as big a killer app as voice and text then it's not worth 5%. If Qualcomm got paid on wireless usage, then this would be a fair metric. They get paid on when the sale occurs and nothing afterwards so I really dont think this is a very good criteria. You have pointed out in the past all of the various non-CDMA related features that go into a handset like the N95. A simple way to test how much the WCDMA/HSDPA patents are worth is to sell two versions. The unsubsidized price is supposed to be $700. Offer a GSM/GPRS/EDGE version for $665 and see what what kind of sales ratio you get. My prediction would be at least a 9 to 1 in favor of the HSDPA version.... Slacker

To: LarsA who wrote (61228)	3/21/2007 11:50:42 AM
From: waitwatchwander	Respond to of 196962

I think you should go back and reread my post because I didn't say Qualcomm should be charging 5% royalties. Whatever HDR is worth it needs to be weighted by the market value of the applicable products verses the value of the overall market. I believe coming to a consensus on that percentage is the boulder. Also, you must realize, whatever that percentage is today that is not the issue. The percentage is dynamic. 3G royalties have now moved into the realm of mix. In the same way that changes in product mix needs to be accounted for in considering changes to gross margin, the average percentage of HDR product value over the life of HDR needs to be consider in setting today's standard royalty rate. You are right about GSM/GPRS/EDGE complicating matters. I have always thought that it should be permitted to die its natural death. Whatever is going on there should be (and is) included in the enhancement to pre'99 components and blended into an overall standard rate through the above weighting mechanism. It is included in the 1% that I used for both Qualcomm and Nokia. I'd add here, given the prominence of the extension of this 2G technology, the current lawsuits should be expeditiously played out for whatever damages can be proven in a true court of law and that should be the end of the matter. If folks really want to get on with building the new wireless world, those efforts should be cheerfully shelved. TD-SCDMA is another blip. However, it still doesn't include HDR (I believe?) so that one falls outside the realm of today's negotiations. Once a mix blending process and basic royalty component values are established, it shouldn't be a big deal to incorporate extensions into that area. I hear you about Zeiss lenses. That is an issue that seems best addressed by a per device overall value cap. Other than consensus on a specific value, how is that a problem? I also support the exclusion of 4G from today's negotiations and only hope that whatever transpires over the near term forms the basis of a more rational standards and royalty setting process. It is going to be challenging for folks to do a much worse job with 4G than that which they have done with 3G. Folks always seem to want to complicate matters. The world would be a much better and more productive place if efforts only shifted towards focusing upon simplification. Time has so little value in today's world.