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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonefish who wrote (74568)	3/22/2007 8:13:11 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 306849

I'd guess the melt-down in subprime lending might reduce Orange County California direct employment by as much as 5% or 75,000. Considering the job loss multiplier (the number of other local jobs maintained by the income spent by these mortgage employees), lets say 3 fold, although sometimes estimated to be as high as 6 fold, and you could get to the neighborhood of 20% of Orange County employment lost in the subprime meltdown. Employment at this list of some of the largest subprime lenders in Orange County were maybe 25,000. I could easily see jobs at smaller subprime lenders and peripheral jobs totaling another 50k. Most but not all of these employees were located in Orange County. 1.) New Century, in Irvine, had 6,500 employees. 2.) ACC Holdings (Ameriquest), in Orange, at one time had 11,000 employees. 3.) Fremont, in Brea, had 3,500 employees. 4.) Option One Mortgage, in Irvine, let's guess 4,000 employees. Total employment in the Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine region (per California Employment Development Dept) for January 2007 is 1.5 million, including self-employment. _ calmis.ca.gov .

To: Bonefish who wrote (74568)	3/22/2007 8:23:04 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

For comparison, some people blame the severe decline in home prices in Los Angeles County from 1989 to 1995 on the loss of defense jobs during that period. The economic commission which measured this job loss, including the multiplier-effect, came up with a total job loss of 3.8% in Los Angeles County due to defense industry cut-backs and closures. In other words a 3.8% job loss resulted in a 50% decline in home prices in more bubbly areas. Now, I have never believed this bogus assumption that the decline in home prices was caused by defense industry cut-backs. Home prices collapsed as part of the end of a speculative mania. But some people do believe this stuff. Just imagine what they picture for Orange County with their much larger job losses from the contraction of the subprime lending industry. .