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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: basho who wrote (80380)	3/26/2007 8:40:47 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

See footnotes: Notes on the Data: Due to the conversion of a commercial bank to a thrift during the week ending March 14, 2007, the assets of the commercial bank universe shrunk by approximately $98.6 billion. The major asset items affected were (in billions): Treasury and Agency securities, $3.0; other securities, $9.2; revolving home equity, $14.2; other residential real estate, $66.4; security loans, $0.2; interbank loans, $3.3; cash assets, $0.8; and other assets, $1.6.

To: basho who wrote (80380)	3/27/2007 9:14:10 AM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

The most recent Fed H8 report shows a drop of about US$110 billion in bank credit, the first significant drop I can remember in a very long time. Even more interesting, perhaps, was the fact that most of it was concentrated in small domestically chartered commercial banks and that almost all of was in real estate loans. Is the subprime/RE drama finally starting to really bite? It sure could be, and it's also only one week's data and there was also that data adjustment Russ mentioned. The next largest weekly drop since 2000 was about $75 billion, and it was in Sept 2001. There was also a multiple week period in Dec 2001 where there was an uninterrupted string of smaller drops. I'm sure not expecting a rabbit to be pulled out of the Fed's or primary dealer's hats, at least for a while. The Fed's SecLend operation shows them running very light, which in my opinion means they're pushing for lower rates. The primary dealers trades of MBS instruments are flattening out, albeit at a fairly high rate. Bottom line is that I'm still looking at another US stock market correction being "allowed" to happen within the next 2-4 weeks.