Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (75071)	3/27/2007 11:11:45 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Worst case scenario, unfortunately realistic, since lots of the mortgage debt has been unloaded to foreigners - US economy weakens, foreigners start selling bonds, the dollar goes sharply down, essentials go sharply up in price, LT interest rates move much higher, causing even more pressure on J6P, a lot more defaults on "weird" mortgages w/o downpayment, and severe economic troubles. So, high inflation in essentials (food and gas), and deflation of asset prices related to debt (stocks and bonds) will be the result. We have not seen ANY bubble fallout yet. They have been postponing the inevitable through lies and market management, but when the real BK comes, things will not be pretty at all. Gold is probably the only answer, as other countries will not be able to prosper due to their exports to the US. The trade deficit will reverse itself as US bubble economy weakens. A long way to go to restore the manufacturing capacity here, thanks to the Fed policies of the last 20 years, which really made us a gambling economy. If one thinks about investment, that's where I would invest after the dollar crisis. Once the foreign gadgets are cut off due to low dollar and high prices of these gadgets, they will need to manufacture a lot more gadgets here. Manufacturing in the US has really been in the dolldrums for a very long time, thanks to the Fed. Who needs to actually produce something, if the Fed hilos are flying around dropping cash? Just be the first one to catch the drops -g-

To: William H Huebl who wrote (75071)	3/27/2007 11:41:34 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I think a break of 80 for USD will cause enough psychological damage to start the chain reaction of BK. The other market to watch is 10-year and 30-year interest rates. A sustained move up in rates (down in bonds) along with the dollar moving down against Yen will likely cause a lot of damage, as it has been, leading to the BK. We are not there yet, but the Fed is not leaning on the printing press. I wonder if the dollar is their reason.