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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (5708)	3/28/2007 12:01:51 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24223

Peak Oil - Who to Believe? Part One - "There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously" Posted by Nate Hagens on March 28, 2007 - 9:23am If you're like me, you might have spent a moment or two in recent months pondering how billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, oil banker Matthew Simmons, and many others are suggesting that the world is reaching Peak Oil now, and at the same time, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) headed by Pulitzer Prize writer Daniel Yergin, and others such as Exxon Mobil, are not predicting a Peak in global oil production until circa 2040 followed by a slow gradual decline. How can such smart and successful people disagree by decades on a topic so vital? Is it possible they use different data sources? Do they mean different things when they say "Peak Oil"? Do they get different secret handshakes from Saudi princes? Do they have different agendas? Are they using different boundaries of analysis? Is one of them kidding? This 3 part post will address how people can differ so much on something so important as a peak and subsequent decline in world oil availability, addressing both factual and psychological reasons. Does the world have plenty of oil? Maybe, but as I will discuss below the fold, this is not among the questions we should be asking. **Note-This is a three piece post (upon advice from Prof Goose..;) Part One is a general background and history on why people can disagree so much on peak oil. Part Two will explore the many factual areas that are confusing and lead to different conclusions. Part Three will look at social and psychological reasons for disparate opinions on this critical topic. ============= Coming up next MORE FACTUAL REASONS WHY PEOPLE DISAGREE ON PEAK OIL and SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL REASONS WHY PEOPLE DISAGREE ON PEAK OIL Here's a sneak peek at Part Two: On the left is productive capacity and on the right is actual production theoildrum.com