Clinton, Obama, McCain Play Expectations Game Over Fundraising
By Julianna Goldman and Jonathan D. Salant
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, recently pulled aside one of the candidate's big supporters at a New York City fundraising event. McAuliffe's message: Barack Obama was likely to raise more money than Clinton in the first quarter.
Obama adviser David Axelrod was delivering a different message in an interview: The Illinois senator was behind others in fundraising, but ``we're trying to do the best we can.''
It's all about expectations. Just as a company's stock price suffers if earnings fail to meet analysts' projections, candidates gain or lose stature according to whether the money they raise exceeds or misses informed estimates. With the first finance reports for the 2008 presidential campaign due to be made public on April 15, campaigns are vigorously trying to lower the bar.
``Fundraising has changed from a brute contact sport, wrestling as many dollars as possible, to the highest form of psychological warfare,'' said Jenny Backus, a Democratic political consultant. ``Winners and losers will not be declared until the money is in the bank.''
It isn't just the Democrats. At a March 5 forum at Harvard University, advisers to former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney both predicted that Arizona Senator John McCain would out-raise their candidates. Last weekend, McCain said that his fundraising started late and was ``going to pay a price for it.''
Meeting Benchmarks
Campaign-finance experts and political operatives say each candidate must meet certain benchmarks in this round. New York Senator Clinton, the Democratic front-runner in polls, may report at least $30 million and perhaps as much as $40 million. That would be more than the $31 million raised by all Democratic candidates in the first quarter of the 2004 campaign -- and more than the $28 million Vice President Al Gore raised for his entire race in 2000.
Clinton, 59, ``has the deepest and widest fundraising base of all of the candidates,'' said Anthony Corrado, a campaign- finance expert and professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, Maine. ``At this stage in the game, all the candidates are trying to establish who's in the top tier with Hillary Clinton.''
A Broader Base
For Obama, 45, that means raising at least $20 million, and having a broader base of contributors because he has relied more on Internet fundraising. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 53, will be shooting to double his $7.4 million haul during the same period four years ago, which outpaced the other Democrats and made him a serious contender.
``Like it or not, there's a minimum that has to be raised,'' said Obama fund-raiser Reed Hundt, a former Federal Communications Commission chairman. ``But if you achieve the minimum, then you're viable.''
On the Republican side, Corrado said, Giuliani, McCain and Romney are all expected to raise about $20 million and to finish within a few million dollars of each other. If one of them does significantly better, it might give his campaign a boost.
Michael Toner, the former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, said some of those estimates may prove low. Several candidates may top $30 million, he said.
Last-Minute Efforts
With the books on the first quarter closing March 31, candidates are making last-minute efforts to increase their totals. McCain, 70, has two events in Virginia this week; Romney, 60, is scheduled to raise money in Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina; and Giuliani, 62, has events in Florida, Nevada and Oklahoma.
Among the Democratic candidates, Obama has two Florida events on March 30, and Clinton is raising funds in Massachusetts and Florida. Clinton earlier this month took in $10 million in just one week -- more than the $8.9 million Gore raised in the first three months of 1999, which had been the most ever raised in the first quarter of the year before an election.
For candidates trailing in the polls, such as Democratic Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut and former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, strong showings in the first round of fund-raising might help them climb toward the first tier.
Early Money, Later Money
``A candidate who greatly exceeds expectations, if history is any guide, will be in a much better position to exceed expectations in later quarters,'' Toner said. ``Early money attracts later money.''
The role model for presidential expectations-game players is probably George W. Bush. In 1999, his spokesman, David Beckwith, predicted the then-governor of Texas would raise $20 million between April and June. Instead, he almost doubled that amount, raising $35 million and helping propel himself to the Republican nomination.
``Candidates seek to replicate that phenomenon,'' said Republican political operative Juleanna Glover Weiss, a McCain supporter and adviser at former Attorney General John Ashcroft's Washington consulting firm. ``Those numbers have the power to create the aura of inevitability.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Julianna Goldman in Washington at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net ; Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: March 28, 2007 00:08 EDT |
